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large is the increase of surplus value。 This decline of the interest rate is in
accord with Bohm…Bawerk's law of 〃diminishing returns。〃 That is； when
capital； like anything else； has become over…plentiful； less lucrative use
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can only be found for the excess。 This excess； not being able to earn so
much as when capital was less plentiful； competes for safe investments
and forces down the interest rate on all capital。 Mr。 Charles A。 Conant has
well described the keenness of the scramble for safe investments； even at
the prevailing low rates of interest。 At the close of the war with Turkey； the
Greek loan； guaranteed by Great Britain； France； and Russia； was floated
with striking ease。 Regardless of the small return； the amount offered at
Paris； （41；000；000 francs）； was subscribed for twenty…three times over。
Great Britain； France； Germany； Holland； and the Scandinavian States； of
recent years； have all engaged in converting their securities from 5 per
cents to 4 per cents； from 4。5 per cents to 3。5 per cents； and the 3。5 per
cents into 3 per cents。
Great Britain； France； Germany； and Austria…Hungary； according to the
calculation taken in 1895 by the International Statistical Institute； hold
forty…six billions of capital invested in negotiable securities alone。 Yet
Paris subscribed for her portion of the Greek loan twenty…three times over！
In short； money is cheap。 Andrew Carnegie and his brother bourgeois
kings give away millions annually； but still the tide wells up。 These vast
accumulations have made possible 〃wild…catting；〃 fraudulent
combinations； fake enterprises； Hooleyism； but such stealings； great
though they be； have little or no effect in reducing the volume。 The time is
past when startling inventions； or revolutions in the method of production；
can break up the growing congestion； yet this saved capital demands an
outlet； somewhere； somehow。
When a great nation has equipped itself to produce far more than it can；
under the present division of the product； consume； it seeks other markets
for its surplus products。 When a second nation finds itself similarly
circumstanced； competition for these other markets naturally follows。 With
the advent of a third； a fourth； a fifth； and of divers other nations； the
question of the disposal of surplus products grows serious。 And with each
of these nations possessing； over and beyond its active capital； great and
growing masses of idle capital； and when the very foreign markets for
which they are competing are beginning to produce similar wares for
themselves； the question passes the serious stage and becomes critical。
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Never has the struggle for foreign markets been sharper than at the
present。 They are the one great outlet for congested accumulations。
Predatory capital wanders the world over； seeking where it may establish
itself。 This urgent need for foreign markets is forcing upon the world…stage
an era of great colonial empire。 But this does not stand； as in the past； for
the subjugation of peoples and countries for the sake of gaining their
products； but for the privilege of selling them products。 The theory once
was； that the colony owed its existence and prosperity to the mother
country； but today it is the mother country that owes its existence and
prosperity to the colony。 And in the future； when that supporting colony
becomes wise in the way of producing surplus value and sends its goods
back to sell to the mother country； what then？ Then the world will have
been exploited； and capitalistic production will have attained its maximum
development。
Foreign markets and undeveloped countries largely retard that moment。
The favored portions of the earth's surface are already occupied； though
the resources of many are yet virgin。 That they have not long since been
wrested from the hands of the barbarous and decadent peoples who
possess them is due； not to the military prowess of such peoples； but to the
jealous vigilance of the industrial nations。 The powers hold one another
back。 The Turk lives because the way is not yet clear to an amicable
division of him among the powers。 And the United States； supreme though
she is； opposes the partition of China； and intervenes her huge bulk
between the hungry nations and the mongrel Spanish republics。 Capital
stands in its own way； welling up and welling up against the inevitable
moment when it shall burst all bonds and sweep resistlessly across such
vast stretches as China and South America。 And then there will be no more
worlds to exploit； and capitalism will either fall back； crushed under its
own weight； or a change of direction will take place which will mark a
new era in history。
The Far East affords an illuminating spectacle。 While the Western
nations are crowding hungrily in； while the Partition of China is
commingled with the clamor for the Spheres of Influence and the Open
Door； other forces are none the less potently at work。 Not only are the
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young Western peoples pressing the older ones to the wall； but the East
itself is beginning to awake。 American trade is advancing； and British
trade is losing ground； while Japan； China； and India are taking a hand in
the game themselves。
In 1893； 100；000 pieces of American drills were imported into China；
in 1897； 349；000。 In 1893； 252；000 pieces of American sheetings were
imported against 71；000 British； but in 1897； 566；000 pieces of American
sheetings were imported against only 10；000 British。 The cotton goods and
yarn trade （which forms 40 per cent of the whole trade with China） shows
a remarkable advance on the part of the United States。 During the last ten
years America has increased her importation of plain goods by 121 per
cent in quantity and 59。5 per cent in value； while that of England and India
combined has decreased 13。75 per cent in quantity and 8 per cent in value。
Lord Charles Beresford； from whose 〃Break…up of China〃 these figures
are taken； states that English yarn has receded and Indian yarn advanced to
the front。 In 1897； 140；000 piculs of Indian yarn were imported； 18；000 of
Japanese； 4500 of Shanghai…manufactured； and 700 of English。
Japan； who but yesterday emerged from the mediaeval rule of the
Shogunate and seized in one fell swoop the scientific knowledge and
culture of the Occident； is already today showing what wisdom she has
acquired in the production of surplus value； and is preparing herself that
she may tomorrow play the part to Asia that England did to Europe one
hundred years ago。 That the difference in the world's affairs wrought by
those one hundred years will prevent her succeeding is manifest； but it is
equally manifest that they cannot prevent her playing a leading part in the
industrial drama which has commenced on the Eastern stage。 Her imports
into the port of Newchang in 1891 amounted to but 22；000 taels； but in
1897 they had increased to 280；000 taels。 In manufactured goods； from
matches； watches； and clocks to the rolling stock of railways； she has
already given stiff shocks to her competitors in the Asiatic markets； and
this while she is virtually yet in the equipment stage of production。
Erelong she； too； will be furnishing her share to the growing mass of the
world's capital。
As regards Great Britain； the giant trader who has so long
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overshadowed Asiatic commerce；