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me year in New York the anti…Lincoln candidate for Secretary of State was defeated by twenty…nine thousand votes。
Though these elections in 1863 can hardly be called the turning…point in the history of the Lincoln Government； yet it was clear that the tide of popularity which had ebbed so far away from Lincoln in the autumn of 1862 was again in the flood。 Another phase of his stormy course may be thought of as having ended。 And in accounting for this turn of the tide it must not be forgotten that between the nomination and the defeat of a Vallandigham the bloody rebellion in New York had taken place； Gettysburg had been fought； and Grant had captured Vicksburg。 The autumn of 1863 formed a breathing space for the war party of the North。
CHAPTER IX。 THE CRUCIAL MATTER
It is the custom of historians to measure the relative strength of North and South chiefly in terms of population。 The North numbered 23；000；000 inhabitants； the South； about 9；000；000； of which the slave population amounted to 3；500；000。 But these obvious statistics only partially indicate the real situation。 Not what one has； but what one is capable of using is； of course； the true measure of strength。 If； in 1861； either side could have struck swiftly and with all its force； the story of the war would have been different。 The question of relative strength was in reality a question of munitions。 Both powers were glaringly unprepared。 Both had instant need of great supplies of arms and ammunition； and both turned to European manufacturers for aid。 Those Americans who； in a later war； wished to make illegal the neutral trade in munitions forgot that the international right of a belligerent to buy arms from a neutral had prevented their own destruction in 1861。 In the supreme American crisis； agents of both North and South hurried to Europe in quest of munitions。 On the Northern side the work was done chiefly by the three ministers； Charles Francis Adams； at London； William L。 Dayton； at Paris； and Henry S。 Sanford； at Brussels； by an able special agent； Colonel George L。 Schuyler； and by the famous banking…house of Baring Brothers； which one might almost have called the European department of the United States Treasury。
The eager solicitude of the War Department over the competition of the two groups of agents in Europe informs a number of dispatches that are； today； precious admonitions to the heedless descendants of that dreadful time。 As late as October； 1861； the Acting Secretary of War wrote to Schuyler； one of whose shipments had been delayed： 〃The Department earnestly hopes to receive。。。the 12；000 Enfield rifles and the remainder of the 27；000； which you state you have purchased； by the earliest steamer following。 Could you appreciate the circumstances by which we are surrounded； you would readily understand the urgent necessity there is for the immediate delivery of all the arms you are authorized to purchase。 The Department expects to hear that you have been able to conclude the negotiations for the 48；000 rifles from the French government arsenals。〃 That the Confederate Government acted even more promptly than the Union Government appears from a letter of Sanford to Seward in May： 〃I have vainly expected orders；〃 he complains； 〃for the purchase of arms for the Government； and am tempted to order from Belgium all they can send over immediately。。。。 Meanwhile the workshops are filling with orders from the South。。。。 It distresses me to think that while we are in want of them； Southern money is taking them away to be used against us。〃
At London； Adams took it upon himself to contract for arms in advance of instructions。 He wrote to Seward： 〃Aware of the degree to which I exceed my authority in taking such a step； nothing but a conviction of the need in which the country stands of such assistance and the joint opinion of all the diplomatic agents of the United States。。。in Paris； has induced me to overcome my scruples。〃 How real was the necessity of which this able diplomat was so early conscious； is demonstrated at every turn in the papers of the War Department。 Witness this brief dispatch from Harrisburg： 〃All ready to leave but no arms。 Governor not willing to let us leave State without them； as act of Assembly forbids。 Can arms be sent here？〃 When this appeal was made； in December； 1861； arms were pouring into the country from Europe； and the crisis had passed。 But if this appeal had been made earlier in the year； the inevitable answer may be guessed from a dispatch which the Ordnance Office sent； as late as September； to the authorities of West Virginia； refusing to supply them with arms because the supplies were exhausted； and adding； 〃Every possible exertion is being made to obtain additional supplies by contract； by manufacture； and by purchase； and as soon as they can be procured by any means； in any way； they will be supplied。〃
Curiously enough； not only the Confederacy but various States of the North were more expeditious in this all…important matter than Cameron and the War Department。 Schuyler's first dispatch from London gives this singular information： 〃All private establishments in Birmingham and London are now working for the States of Ohio； Connecticut； and Massachusetts； except the London Armory； whose manufacture is supposed to go to the Rebels； but of this last fact I am not positively informed。 I am making arrangements to secure these establishments for our Government； if desirable after the present State contracts expire。 On the Continent； Messrs； Dayton and Sanford。。。have been making contracts and agreements of various kinds； of which you are by this time informed。〃 Soon afterward； from Paris； he made a long report detailing the difficulties of his task； the limitations of the existing munitions plants in Europe； and promising among other things those 〃48；000 rifles from the French government arsenals〃 for which； in the letter already quoted； the War Department yearned。 It was an enormous labor； and； strive as he would； Schuyler found American mail continuing to bring him such letters as this from the Assistant Secretary of War in October： 〃I notice with much regret that ＇in the latest consignment＇ there were no guns sent； as it was confidently expected that 20；000 would arrive by the ＇steamship＇ Fulton； and accordingly arrangements had been made to distribute them through the different States。 Prompt and early shipments of guns are desirable。 We hope to hear by next steamer that you have shipped from 80；000 to 100；000 stand。〃
The last word on the problem of munitions； which was so significant a factor in the larger problem； is the report of the United States Ordnance Office for the first year of the war。 It shows that between April； 1861； and June； 1862； the Government purchased from American manufacturers somewhat over 30；000 rifles； and that from European makers it purchased 726；000。
From these illustrations it is therefore obvious that the true measure of the immediate strength of the American contestants in 1861 was the extent of their ability to supply themselves from Europe； and this； stated more concretely； became the question as to which was the better able to keep its ports open and receive the absolutely essential European aid。 Lincoln showed his clear realization of the situation when he issued； immediately after the first call for volunteers； a proclamation blockading the Southern coasts。 Whether the Northern people at the time appreciated the significance of this order is a question。 Amid the wild and vain clamor of the multitude in 1861； with its conventional and old…fashioned notion of war as a thing of trumpets and glittering armies； the North seems wholly to have ignored its fleet； and yet in the beginning this resource was its only strength。
The fleet was small； to be sure； but its task was at first also small。 There were few Southern ports which were doing a regular business with Europe； and to close these was not difficult。 As other ports opened and the task of blockade grew； the Northern navy also increased。 Within a few months； to the few observers who did not lose their heads； it was plain that the North had won the first great contest of the war。 It had so hampered Southern trade that Lincoln's advantage in arming the North from Europe was ten to one。 At the very time when detractors of Lincoln were hysterical over the removal of Fremont； when Grimes wrote to Fessenden that the country was going to the dogs as fast as imbecility could carry it； this great achievement had quietly taken place。 An expedition sailing in August from Fortress Monroe seized the forts which commanded Hatteras Inlet off the coast of North Carolina。 In November； Commander Dupont； U。 S。 N。； seized Port Royal； one of the best harbors on the coast of South Carolina； and established there a naval base。 Thenceforth； while the open Northern ports received European munitions without hindrance； it was a risky business getting munitions into the ports of the South。 Only the boldest traders would attempt to 〃run the blockade；〃 to evade the Federal patrol ships by night and run into a Southern port。
However； for one moment in the autumn of 1861； it seemed as if all the masterful work of the No