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edecessors; and an author who doesn’t acknowledge his debts is either arrogant; lazy; or both。 Those are terrible traits in a trader; and if he writes like that; I don’t want his advice。 And of course; I have zero respect for thieves。 Book titles are not copyrighted; and in recent years a bunch of people have lifted the title of my first book; Trading for a Living; usually with slight variations。 I am sure that some clown will steal the title of the book you’re now reading。 Will you want to learn from a poacher who cannot think for himself?
如果你不了解一个投资顾问,最好远离他。交易吸引比较聪明的人,也许你也是。如果你很认真地学习,却不明白对方的话,那很可能是因为对方在说模棱两可的欺人之谈。谈到书,我就避免看英语写的很差的书。语言反映了思想,如果一个人写不好,很可能是因为他想不清楚。我同样不看没有列参考书目的书。我们都从前辈那里借知识,一个作者如果不承认他借了别人的知识,他要么是傲慢,要么是偷懒,要么两者间而有之。这些都是交易者的缺点,如果谁这么写书,我是不会听他的建议的。当然了,我也鄙视抄书行为。书名不受版权保护,最近几年,很多人用我的书名《以交易为生》,通常只是少许修改。我相信有些小丑会偷你正在看的书名。你会相信一个没有自我的小偷吗?
My second rule is to avoid very expensive services; be they books; advisory letters; or seminars。 A 200 newsletter is likely to be a better value than a 2;000 one; and a 500 seminar a better value than a 5;000 one。 Merchants of super…expensive products sell an implicit promise of “the keys to the kingdom。” Their customers are usually desperate to dig out from under abysmal losses。 Football players call this a “Hail Mary” play … when a losing team in the last seconds of the game desperately tosses the ball forward; hoping to score。 They’ve already lost the game on skill; and now try to e back in a single desperate gamble。 When a trader who lost more than half of his account buys a 3;000 trading system; he is doing the same thing。
我的第2个原则就是避免昂贵的服务,无论是书,投资顾问报告或者是研讨会。200元的投资报告邮件比2000元的还要好,500元的研讨会比5000元的研讨会好。生意人卖的产品超级贵,似乎暗示是“通向王国的钥匙”。他们的客户一般都想从无底的亏损中解放出来。橄榄球中这叫“绝望一击”——输球的一方在最后几秒钟绝望地掷球,希望得分。他们已经由于技术不行而失败,希望最后一次赌博能扭转局面。当一个交易者亏掉一半的钱,然后去买3000元的交易系统,他在做同样的事。
Helpful advisors tend to be modest; and price their services accordingly。 An obscene price is a marketing gimmick that conveys a subliminal message that the service is magic。 There is no magic … no one can deliver on that promise。 A relatively inexpensive service is a bargain when it’s good; and a cheap loss when it isn’t。
能起帮助左右的投资顾问一般比较谦逊,他们的收费比较客观。一个收费昂贵的产品是一些人用的商业伎俩,故意暗示你这个服务有魔力。其实没有魔力——没人能保证魔力。一个相对便宜的服务才是划算的,就算不好,损失也不大。
Someone once asked Sigmund Freud what he thought the best attitude for a patient was。 “Benign skepticism;” answered the great psychiatrist; and that’s good advice for financial traders。 Maintain an attitude of healthy skepticism。 If you find something you don’t understand; try it again; and if you still do not get it; it is probably not worth having。 Run; do not walk; from those who offer to sell you the keys to the kingdom。 Keep your expenses low and remember; any information you receive bees valuable to you only after you’ve tested it on your data; making it your own。
有人曾经问西格蒙德·弗洛伊德,对待病人的最好态度是什么。“良性的怀疑主义,”伟大的心理学家说,对于金融交易者也是同理。要保持良性的怀疑主义。如果你发现了一些你不明白的地方,继续研究,如果你还不明白,可能是因为那根本不值得你研究。如果有人卖给你通向王国的钥匙,赶快跑开,不是走开。要保证低的费用,记住,只有你亲自验证过的信息才是有价值的信息。
GETTING YOUR GEAR
拿起你的装备
A successful trader is like a fish swimming upstream; against the current。 missions; slippage; and expenses keep pushing you back。 You must make enough money to overshoot these three barriers before making a dime。
一个成功的交易者就像是逆流而上的鱼。佣金,滑点亏损和其它费用都会阻止你向前。在赚钱之前,你必须努力摆脱这3个障碍。
There is no shame in deciding trading is too hard and walking away; just as there is no shame in being unable to dance or play the piano。 Many beginners jump in without thinking and get financially and emotionally hurt。 It is a great game; but if you leave; better do it early。
如果你觉得交易太难了,你不干了,这并不丑。不会跳舞,不会弹钢琴,这都不丑。很多新手想都不想,一头跳进,结果金钱亏损,身心受伤。这是个伟大的游戏,如果你想放弃,最好早点放弃。
If you decide to trade; read on; because in the following sections we will look into psychology; trading tactics; and money management。 But first; we must talk about the practical aspects of trading … how to open an account; choose a puter; and start collecting data。
如果你决定交易,继续读下去,因为下面我们会谈心理,交易战术和资金管理。首先,我们必须谈论交易的实际情况——如何开户,选择电脑,收集数据。
Size Matters
仓位很重要
Making or losing money in the market depends in part on how much you put into your account。 Two people can take identical trades; but one will grow equity; while the other will bust out。 How could this be if they buy and sell the same quantity of the same stock at the same time?
赚钱或亏钱还取决于账户的资金大小。2个人进行相同的交易,1个账户会增长,1个会亏损出局。如果他们买和卖的完全一样,数量也一样,怎么结果会不同呢?
Suppose we meet and decide to pass an hour tossing a coin; playing heads…or…tails … heads you win; tails you lose。 Each of us will bring 5 to the game and bet 25 cents on each flip。 As long as we use a fair coin; by the end of the hour we will be about even; each with about 5。
假如我们见面了,我们用1个小时的时间猜硬币,猜正面或反面——正面算你赢,反面算我赢。每次我们压5元钱,赌25分钱。只要硬币没做假,1个小时后,我们的结果差不多,都是5元左右。
What happens if we play the same game and use the same coin; only now you start with 5; while I bring only 1? You’ll probably end up taking my money。 You are likely to win because your capital provides greater staying power。 It would take a string of 20 losses to bankrupt you; while for me a string of just 4 losses would be fatal。 Four losses in a row are much more likely than 20。 The trouble with a small account is that it has no reserves to survive even a short run of losing trades。 Winning trades are always interlaced with losers; and a short losing streak wipes out small traders。
如果还是玩相同的游戏,用相同的硬币,只是你以5元开始,我以1元开始,结果会如何?很可能你赢了我的钱。你可能会赢是因为你的资金能保证你坚持的时间长。你连续输20次才会把钱输光,而我,连续输4次就完蛋了。我连续输4次相当于你连续输20次。小账户的麻烦就是没有足够的储备保证连续的小亏损。赚钱的交易总是伴随着亏钱的交易,一连串的小亏损会把小账户摧毁。
Most beginners start out with too little money。 There is plenty of noise in the markets … random moves that defy trading systems。 A small trader who runs into a noisy period has no safety cushion。 His long…term analysis may be brilliant; but the market will do him in; because he does not have the staying power to ride out a losing streak。
大部分新手刚开始时的钱很少。市场中的噪音特别多——很多随即的波动都会违反交易系统。一个小交易者,如果正好进入噪音时期,他是没有安全保证的。也许他的长期分析是对的,但是市场会陷害他,因为他没有办法熬过一连串的亏损。
Back in 1980; as a greenhorn amateur; I walked into a Chase bank around the corner and drew a 5;000 cash advance against my credit card。 I needed that princely sum to meet a margin call in my depleted trading account。 A beady…eyed cashier called the manager; who demanded my thumbprint on the receipt。 The transaction felt dirty; but I got the money … which I proceeded to lose within a few months。 My system was correct; but the market noise was killing me。 It wasn’t until I got my trading account into a fortable high five figures that I started making money。 I wish someone had explained the concept of size to me in those days。
回到80年代,作为一个新手,我用信用卡在街角的大通银行体现5000元。我要把这些珍贵的钱转到我空空的交易账户中做保证金交易。眼尖的营业员打电话给经理,经理要求我在收据上按手印。整个过程感觉不舒服,好像犯罪一样,但是我拿到了钱——这些钱后来我用几个月的时间都亏掉了。我的系统很正确,但是市场的噪音害了我。直到我把账户的钱增加到5位数,我才开始赚钱。我真希望过去有人能告诉我仓位的概念啊。
Trading a small account is like flying an airplane at treetop level。 You have no room to maneuver; no time to think。 The slightest slip of attention; a piece of bad luck; a freaky branch sticking out into the air … you crash and burn。 The higher you fly; the more time you have to find your way out of trouble。 Flying at a low altitude is tough enough for experts; but deadly for beginners。 A trader needs to gain altitude; get more equity; and buy some space for maneuvers。
用小账户交易就像是开飞机在树那么高的低空飞行。你没有回旋的空间,没有思考的时间。只要有一点点分心,有点倒霉,碰到树枝——你就会坠毁。你飞的越高,你就会有更多的时间来解决问题。在低空飞行对专业人士来说都很困难,对新手则是致命的。交易者需要高度,需要更多的资金,以此换来更多的回旋余地。
A person with a large account who bets a small fraction on any given trade can stay calm。 A person with a small account gro