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Data
数据
Signing up with a data service appears simple； but raises several questions that go to the heart of trading。 How many markets should you follow？ How far back should you go in your research？ Do you need real…time data？ Answering these questions takes you deep into the trading enterprise and forces you to review your decision…making process。
和数据服务公司签订协议很简单，但是要问几个关于交易的关键问题。你要跟踪哪些市场？你在研究过去时，要研究到哪一年？你是否需要即时数据？回答了这些问题，才能带你进入交易的世界，也会逼你认真思考你的决策过程。
How Many Markets Should You Follow？ Beginners make the mon mistake of trying to follow too many markets at once。 Some look for software to scan thousands of stocks and quickly bog down。 Serious beginners should pick no more than two or three dozen stocks and track them day in and day out。 You need to get to know them； develop a feel for how they move。 Do you know when your panies release their earnings？ Do you know their highest and lowest prices for the past year？ The more you know about a stock； the more confidence you have and the fewer surprises can jump out at you。 Many professionals focus on just a few stocks； or even on a single one。
你要跟踪哪些市场？新手喜欢犯错，喜欢同时跟踪很多市场。有些人让软件帮他扫描几千只股票，但是自己很快陷入困境。认真的新手一般只观察几十只股票，并每天跟踪。你要认识它们，感觉到它们的波动。你知道这些公司何时发放红利吗？你知道过去他们的最高价和最低价吗？你对一只股票的了解越多，你就越自信，你遇到的意外也就越少。很多专业人士只关注很少的几只股票，甚至就1只。
Which stocks should you track？
应该跟踪哪些股票？
Begin by choosing two or three currently hot industries。 Technology； Internet； telemunications； and biotechnology industries are in the forefront of the market at the time of this writing； but the list is likely to change。 It always does。 Pick half a dozen leading stocks in each of those industries and follow them daily。 That’s where you’ll find the highest volumes； the steadiest trends； the crispest reversals。 Several months later； after you get to know your stocks and make some money； you may be ready to add another industry group and pick its top six stocks。 Remember； the depth of your research is much more important than its breadth。 You can make more money from a handful of familiar stocks。
开始可以选2，3个热门行业。科技，互联网，通讯和生物科技，这些都是我写书时的市场前沿，但有可能在变化。总是在变。在这些行业里面选好6只股票，然后每天跟踪。你会发现最大的成交量，最稳定的趋势，最干脆的反转。几个月后，当你了解了你的股票，也赚了一点钱，你可以再增加几个行业，每个行业选6只最好的股票。记住，你研究的深度比广度更重要。你可以从大把的相似股票中赚钱。
The choice is easier for futures traders … there are only about three dozen futures； in six or seven groups。 Beginners should stay away from the most volatile markets。 Take grains； for instance。 You should analyze corn； wheat； and soybeans； but trade only corn because it tends to be the slowest and quietest of the group。 Learn to ride a bicycle with training wheels before starting to race。 When it es to tropicals； analyze all； but trade only sugar … a big； liquid； and reasonably volatile market； leaving aside coffee and cocoa； which can move as fast as the S&P。 Needless to say； a beginner has no business with stock index futures； whose nickname on the floor is “rockets。” You may graduate to them in a couple of years； but at this stage； if you have an opinion on the stock market； trade SPDRs or QQQs； exchange…traded market indexes。
期货交易者的选择就简单了——只有30多个期货，一共才6，7组。新手应该避开波动厉害的市场。以谷物为例。你应该分析玉米，小麦，和大豆。但只能交易玉米，因为玉米市场是变化最慢的，最安静的。在骑自行车之前，要学会用辅助轮辅助骑车。如果是热带作物，分析所有的市场，但只交易糖——市场大，流动性好，波动合理，不要交易咖啡和可可，它们像标准普尔股指期货一样波动快。不必说，新手不能做股指期货，股指期货叫“火箭。”你也许需要几年才会别有，如果你到了那个境界，对股票市场形成了自己的看法，可以交易指数股，比如SPDRs（张轶注：跟踪标准普尔，行业指数和大盘）或QQQs（张轶注：跟踪纳斯达克100指数），或者股指期货。
How Far Back Should You Go in Your Research？ A daily chart on a puter screen will fortably show five or six months of history。 You’ll see less with candlesticks （see p。 xx）； which take up more space。 Daily charts alone aren’t enough； and you need weekly charts with at least two years worth of history。 Learning history prepares you for the future； and it could be helpful to glance at a 10…year chart and see whether that market is high or low in the long…term scheme of things。
你要研究到过去的哪一年？电脑屏幕上的日线图一般可以轻松地显示过去5，6个月的波动。用K线看会更少，因为K线占空间。日线图也不够用，你还需要看周线图，只少要看过去的2年。学习历史就是为了将来做准备，如果看看10年图，是有好处的，这样你就知道在过去，何时是高点，何时是低点。
Charts spanning 20 or more years are especially useful for futures traders。 Futures； unlike stocks； have natural floors and ceilings。 Those levels are not rigid； but before you buy or sell； try to find out whether you’re closer to the floor or the ceiling。
对期货交易者来说，跨度在20年或20年以上的图特别有用。期货和股票不同，它有自然的低点和高点。这些高低点并不是严格的，但是在你买或卖之前，尽量看看是你是否接近低点或高点。
The floor price of futures is their cost of production。 When a market falls below that level； producers start quitting； supply falls； and prices rise。 If there is a glut of sugar and its price on the world markets falls below what it costs to grow the stuff； major producers are going to start shutting down their operations。 There are exceptions； such as when a desperately poor country sells modities on the world markets to earn hard currency； while paying domestic workers with devalued local money。 The price can dip below the cost of production； but it cannot stay there for long。
期货的底价就是他们的生产成本。当市场跌到这个水平时，生产商就会退出，供应减少，价格上涨。如果糖供过于求，它的价格下跌到成本区，主要生产商就会停止生产。这叫期望，比如一个极度贫穷的国家，在国际市场上卖商品，为了挣到强势货币，而国内的工人只能得到贬值的货币。价格可能会跌到生产成本以下很多，但不会长久。
The ceiling for most modities is the cost of substitution。 One modity can replace another if the price is right。 For example； with a rise in the price of corn； a major animal feed； it may be cheaper to feed animals wheat。 As more farmers switch and reduce corn purchases； they take away the fuel that raised corn prices。 A market in the grip of hysteria may briefly rise above its ceiling； but cannot stay there for long。 Its return to the normal range provides profit opportunities for savvy traders。 Learning from history can help you keep calm when others are losing their heads。
大多数商品的最高价是替代品的成本。如果一个商品的价格太高，肯定有另外一个商品能替代它。比如，玉米的价格上涨，玉米是动物的饲料，用小麦喂动物可能更便宜。当更多的农民转向小麦，玉米的采购量下跌时，玉米的价格就没有上涨动力了。歇斯底里的价格上涨会超过过去的最高价，但不会长久。它会回到正常的价格区间，让聪明的交易者赚到钱。从历史学习可以帮助你保持冷静，而此时别人已经疯了。
Futures contracts expire every few months； making long…term charts difficult to analyze。 When it es to dailies； we look at the currently active month； but what about the weeklies？ Here we have to use continuous contracts； mathematical devices that splice several contract months。 It pays to download two data series … the currently active contract； going back about six months； and the continuous contract going back at least two years。 Analyze weekly charts using continuous data； and switch to the front month to study daily charts。
期货合约在几个月后就会到期作废，所以长线图很难分析。如果看日线图，我们可以看目前活跃的月份，但是怎么看周线图呢？我们需要使用连续的合约图，利用数学计算设备把很多合约图连接到一起。你需要花钱下载这些数据——当前的合约数据，半年前的数据， 2年前的连续数据。利用连续的数据分析周线图，并利用当前月的图分析日线图。
Do You Need Real…Time Data？ Real…time data flows to your screen tick by tick； as prices change in the markets。 A live screen is one of the most captivating sights on Earth； right up there with nude co…ed volleyball or a chain collision on an expressway。 Watching your stock dance in front of your face can help you find the best spots for buying and selling … or make you forget reality and swim in adrenaline。
你需要即时数据吗？即时数据在你的电脑屏幕上流动，和市场的价格波动一样。有即时波动的电脑屏幕是这个地球上最迷人的地方，和裸体男女排球，公路连环撞车一样迷人。看着自己的股票在眼前跳舞，能帮助你发现买卖机会——或者是让你忘记现实，追求刺激。
Will live data improve your trading？ The answer is “yes” for a few； “maybe” for some； and “no” for most。 Having a live screen on your desk； says a trader friend； is like sitting in front of a one…armed bandit。 You invariably end up feeding it quarters。
即时的数据会提高交易水平吗？对少数人来说，是的；对有些人来说，也许是的；对大部分人来说，不是的。看着屏幕上的即时波动，一个交易者朋友说�