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n the middle。
天才很少看书是因为他对市场非常敏感。赌徒则忙着追求刺激。本书是为两者之间的交易者写的。
CHAPTER ONE INVEST？ TRADE？ GAMBLE？
第01章 投资？交易？赌博？
A newer to the market faces three paths that lead into a forest full of treasures and dangers。 The first path； for investors； goes through the sunniest areas。 Most of those who take it e out alive； if not much richer。 Another path； for traders； leads into the heart of the forest。 Many travelers disappear； but those who e out look rich。 The third is a shortcut that takes gamblers into the swamp。
对新手而言，有3条路可以进入财富和风险的森林。第1条路，是投资者走的，会走到阳光灿烂的地方。采用投资方式的大多数人都会生存下来，也许没那么富有。第2条路，是交易者走的，会到达森林的中心。很多旅游者消失了，出来的人都会富有。第3条路是捷径，会把赌徒带入沼泽地。
How can you tell which path is which？ You must choose your way carefully because if you don’t； you’ll end up on the gamblers’ path； especially since it crosses both investors’ and traders’ trails。 We’ll return to this question in the chapters on trading psychology。
如何区分这些路呢？你必须认真区分，如果你不这么做，你会走上赌徒之路，而且赌徒在很多方面和投资者，交易者相像。我们会在交易心理的章节再谈这个问题。
AN INTELLIGENT INVESTOR
聪明的投资者
Investors profit by recognizing new trends in the economy and buying into them before the majority wakes up to opportunities。 A knowledgeable investor can earn huge percentage gains by holding his position without being terribly active。
投资者发现经济的新趋势，在大众没有看到机会前开始买入，以此获利。聪明的投资者可以通过坚决持有自己的仓位，不受可怕波动的影响，而收益巨大。
Back in the 1970s； I bought stock in a pany called KinderCare； which ran a chain of child care centers。 It tried to make them as uniform and reliable as McDonalds’ hamburgers。 KinderCare catered to baby boomers who were having babies right； left； and center。 Half of my friends were pregnant at that time。 A major social shift was taking place in the United States； with women going to work in record numbers。 Someone had to mind the babies of all those two…ine families； and the stock of KinderCare soared on the crest of a new social trend。
回到70年代，我买了一只叫爱心关怀公司的股票，这家公司开办了小孩照顾中心的连锁。他们把连锁店办的像麦当劳汉堡包一样，外观一致，服务可靠。爱心关怀公司迎合了婴儿潮时期出生的人需要托管小孩的需要。当时，我有一半的朋友都怀孕了。美国正在发生重大的社会变化，很多女性去上班。父母都上班，因为需要有人来照顾孩子，爱心关怀公司的股价随着这个新的社会趋势而飙涨。
AT&T used to have a monopoly on long…distance phone calls。 Then in the late 1970s a tiny brash upstart called MCI won a legal dogfight； allowing it to pete with AT&T。 The age of deregulation was upon us； and the stock of MCI … the first pany into the breach … sold for 3 presenting another great opportunity to hop aboard a new trend。
过去，美国电话电报公司垄断了长话业务。然后70年代末，一个叫美国微波通信公司起来了，赢得了和美国电话电报公司的法律诉讼，由此可以和美国电报电话公司开展竞争。新的变革正在开始，美国微波通信公司的股票——打破常规的第1家公司——股票卖3元，预示了一次新趋势的形成，又是一个伟大的机会。
A few years ago I flew into New York from the Caribbean with my friend George。 He became a millionaire by buying 30；000 worth of Dell stock before most people had heard of the pany … and unloading it at the top three years later with the help of technical analysis。 Sprawled in his first…class seat； George was perusing several investment advisories； trying to lock in on the next trend in Internet technology。 How right he was！ Within a year Internet stocks were flying； defying gravity。
几年前，我和朋友乔治在加勒比坐飞机到纽约。他在别人还不知道戴尔公司的时候，就买了30000元的戴尔股票——3年后，在技术分析的帮助下卖掉，成为百万富翁。躺在头等舱里，乔治因为听了有些投资建议，准备在互联网技术里面找到未来的趋势。他太正确了！1年后，互联网股票飞上天了，似乎脱离了地球引力。
That’s the lure of investing。 If you can buy a chunk of Dell at 4 a share and cash out at 80 a few years later； it is easy to fly down to a resort for a week rather than sit in front of a monitor watching every tick。 What are the disadvantages？ Investing requires a great deal of patience and an immense supply of self…confidence。 To buy Chrysler after it was rescued from the brink of bankruptcy or Internet search engines before anyone knew what those words meant； you had to have a huge level of confidence in your ability to read the trends in society and the economy。 All of us are smart after the fact； very few are smart early in the game； and only the tiniest percentage has the emotional strength to make a large bet on their vision and hold on to it。 Those who can do this consistently； like Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch； are hailed as superstars。
这就是投资的诱惑。如果你在4元大量买入戴尔的股票，几年后在80元卖掉，你就能很轻松地飞到度假胜地过一周，而不是坐在显示器前面盯着波动变化。劣势是什么？投资需要极大的耐心和超级自信。在克莱斯勒破产的边缘买入，在别人都不知道的时候买互联网搜索引擎的股票，这都需要极大的信心，还要有能力看出社会和经济的趋势。事后诸葛亮我们都会，很少人能在实战中如此聪明。只有极少的人能在自己的预测上下重注并坚持自己的信念。能够坚持这么做的人，像沃伦·巴菲特，彼得·林奇，他们就是超级巨星。
AN INTELLIGENT TRADER
聪明的交易者
Traders make money by betting on short…term price swings。 The idea is to buy when our reading of the market tells us prices are rising and sell when the uptrend runs out of steam。 Alternatively； we can bet on a decline and sell short when our analysis points to a downtrend； covering when the downtrend starts bottoming out。 The concept is simple； but implementing it is difficult。
交易者通过赌价格的短期波动而赚钱。如果市场告诉我们价格在涨，就买入；如果上涨趋势结束，就卖出。同理，如果我们分析趋势是下跌的，那么我们可以做空，当下跌到底时再回补。概念很简单，但是做起来很难。
It is hard to bee a good analyst； but harder to bee a good trader。 Beginners often assume they can make money because they’re smart； puter…literate and have a record of success in business。 You can get a fast puter and even buy backtested system from a vendor； but putting money on it is like trying to sit on a three…legged stool with two legs missing。 The two other factors are psychology and money management。
成为一个优秀的分析师是很难的，但是要成为一个优秀的交易者更难。新手总是认为他们能赚钱，因为他们聪明，懂电脑，有成功的生意经验。你可以用最快的电脑，你也可以买到测试有效的系统，但是实战就像坐在只有1条腿的3脚椅上。另外2个因素是心理和资金管理。
Balancing your mind is just as important as analyzing markets。 Your personality influences your perceptions； making it a key aspect of your success or failure。 Managing money in your trading account is essential for surviving the inevitable drawdowns and prospering in the long run。 Psychology； market analysis； and money management … you have to master all three to bee a success。
平衡你的思想和分析市场一样重要。你的性格会影响你的感觉，对你的成功或失败都会起到关键作用。资金管理可以让你的账户避免亏损，并长期赚钱。心理，市场分析和资金管理——要想成功，必须3者都会。
There are two main approaches to profiting from crowd behavior。 The first is momentum trading … buy when a ripple starts running through the crowd； sending the market higher； and sell when that ripple starts losing speed。 It is a challenge to identify a new trend while it’s still young。 As the trend speeds up and the crowd bees exuberant； amateurs fall in love with their positions。 Professionals remain calm and monitor the trend’s speed。 As soon as they find that the crowd is returning to its normal sleepiness； they take profits without waiting for a reversal。
有2种方法可以从大众行为中获利。第1个是动能交易——当波动在人群中蔓延，推高市场的时候买入，当波动开始失去速度的时候卖出。在新的趋势刚形成时，是很难判断的。当趋势加速时，大众就会激动，业余选手会爱上自己的仓位。专业人士则保持冷静，监视趋势的速度。当他们发现大众回到正常的昏头状态时，他们立刻兑现利润，不会等市场反转。
The other method is the countertrend strategy。 It involves betting against the deviations and for a return to normalcy。 Countertrend traders sell short when an upside breakout starts running out of speed and cover when a downtrend starts petering out。 Beginners love to trade against trends （“let’s buy； this market can’t go any lower！”）； but most get impaled on a price spike that fails to reverse。 A man who likes peeing against the wind has no right to plain about his cleaning bills。 Professionals can trade against trends only because they are ready to run at the first sign of trouble。 Before you bet on a reversal； be sure your exit strategy and money management are fine…tuned。
第2个方法是逆势策略。这意味着在背离处下注，以期望市场恢复到之前状态。交易者在向上突破减速时做空并在下跌慢慢结束时回补。新手很爱逆势交易（我们买吧，市场不会再跌了！），但是大多数人都被向上的临时反弹给钉死了，市场并没有反转。一个喜欢对着风撒尿的人没有资格抱怨自己交易单。专业人士可以逆势交易，因为他们会在有麻烦的时候立刻逃跑。既然你是在赌反转，要保证你的出场策略和资金管理有效。
Momentum traders and countertrend traders capitalize on two opposite aspects of crowd behavior。 Before you put on a trade； be sure to know whether you’re investing； momentum trading； or countertrend trading。 Once you’ve entered a trade； manage it as pl