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Black…box programs self…destruct as soon as the markets change； even if they include self…optimization。 Black boxes appeal to beginners who derive a false sense of security from them。
出色的交易记录加上保密的交易系统，其实是没有任何含义的，因为那是用过去的数据测试的。任何电脑都能告诉你过去任何指标都有用。即使它们使用了自我优化功能，保密的软件会在市场发生变化时会发生自毁。黑箱能吸引新手，新手从黑箱得到了虚假的安全。
A good software package is a toolbox … a collection of tools for analyzing markets and making your own decisions。 A toolbox can download data； draw charts； and plot indicators； as well as any trading signals you care to program。 It provides charting and analytic tools but leaves you to make your own trading decisions。
好的软件包是一个工具箱——一些工具，让你分析市场，并自己做决定。工具箱可以下载数据，画图，设置指标和你喜欢的信号。它提供了画图和分析工具，但是你自己做交易决定。
The heart of any toolbox is its collection of indicators … tools for identifying trends and reversals behind the noise of raw data。 Good toolboxes allow you to modify indicators and even design your own。 Indicators are objective； you may argue about the trend； but when an indicator is up； it’s up； and when it is down； it’s down。 Keep in mind that indicators are derived from prices。 The more plicated they are； the farther they are from prices and the farther away from reality。 Prices are primary； indicators are secondary； and simple indicators work best。
工具箱的内部是一些指标——确认趋势，反转的指标，它们能去除数据的噪音。好的工具箱能让你修改指标，甚至设计自己的指标。指标是客观的，你可能会和趋势吵架，但是当指标上涨时，就是上涨，当它下跌时，就是下跌。记住，指标来自价格。它们越复杂，它们离开价格和事实就越远。价格是原始的，指标是第2位的，简单的指标最好。
Trend…Following Indicators and Oscillators Learning to use indicators is like learning a foreign language。 You have to immerse yourself in them； make typical beginners’ mistakes； and keep practicing until you rise to the level of proficiency and petence。
趋势跟踪指标和振荡指标 学习使用指标就像是学习外语。你必须融入其中，像新手一样犯错，坚持实践，直到你精通掌握。
Good technical indicators are simple tools that perform well when market conditions change。 They are robust； that is； relatively immune to parameter changes。 If an indicator gives great signals using a 17…day window but bombs when you try a 15…day window； then it’s probably useless。 Good indicators give useful signals at a broad range of settings。
好的指标是简单的工具，在市场情况改变时也能表现良好。它们很有力，也就是说，即使参数改变，它们的效果也不错。如果一个指标，用17天做参数，信号很好，用15天做参数，信号就不行，那么这个指标是没用的。好的指标在不同参数下都能提供有用的信号。
We can divide all technical indicators into three major groups： trend…following； oscillators； and miscellaneous。 Whenever we use an indicator； we must know to which group it belongs。 Each group has its advantages and disadvantages。
我们可以把所有的指标分成3组：趋势跟踪指标，振荡指标，和综合指标。无论何时我们使用指标，我们必须知道它属于哪一组。每一组都有它的优势和劣势。
Trend…following indicators include moving averages； MACD （moving average convergence…divergence）； Directional System； and others。 Big trends mean big money； and these indicators help us stay long in uptrends and short in downtrends。 They have built…in inertia that allows them to lock onto a trend and ride it。 That same inertia causes them to lag at turning points。 Their advantages and disadvantages are the flip sides of each other； and you cannot have one without the other。
趋势跟踪指标包括均线，MACD（指数平滑异同移动平均线），方向系统，等等。大趋势意味着很多钱，这些指标能帮助我们在上涨时做多，在下跌时做空。它们有内在惯性，这样可以跟踪并锁定趋势。这些惯性同样会导致它们在下跌时滞后。它们的优势和劣势是对应的，你不能只用一个，放弃另一个。
Oscillators include Force Index； Rate of Change； and Stochastic； among others。 They help catch turning points by showing when markets are overbought （too high and ready to fall） or oversold （too low and ready to rise）。 Oscillators work great in trading ranges； where they catch upturns and downturns。 Taking their signals when prices are relatively flat is like going to a cash machine … you always get something； although not very much。 Their downside is that they give premature sell signals in uptrends and buy signals in downtrends。
振荡指标包括力量指数，变化速率，和随机指标，等等。在市场超买（太高了，要跌）或超卖（太低了，要涨）时它们能帮助抓住反转点。在横盘时振荡指标表现好，它们能抓住上涨和下跌。如果价格走的比较水平，你就可以使用它们的指标——你总能赚点，但不多。在上涨时提前给下跌的信号，在下跌时提前给上涨的信号。
Miscellaneous indicators； such as Bullish Consensus； mitments of Traders； and New High–New Low Index； gauge the current mood of the market。 They show whether the overall bullishness or bearishness is rising or falling。
综合指标，包括情绪指标，持仓量报告，新高新低指数，他们计算市场的情绪。它们表明市场总体的多头或空头是上涨或下跌。
Indicators from different groups often contradict one another。 For example； when markets rise； trend…following indicators turn up； telling us to buy。 At the same time； oscillators bee overbought and start flashing sell signals。 The opposite occurs in downtrends； when trend…following indicators turn down； giving sell signals； while oscillators bee oversold； flashing buy signals。 Which should we follow？ The answers are easy in the middle of a chart； but much harder at the right edge； where we must make our trading decisions。
不同组的指标经常会互相矛盾。比如，当市场上涨，趋势跟踪指标上涨，叫我们买。同时，振荡指标认为已经超买了，开始发出卖出信号。下跌时相反，当趋势跟踪指标下跌时，振荡指标认为超卖了，发出买入信号。我们应该跟踪哪个信号呢？事后看图表时好像很简单，但是实战时很难，实战时我们必须自己做交易决定。
Some beginners close their eyes to plexity； choose a single indicator； and stick to it until the market whacks them from an unexpected direction。 Others create a homemade opinion poll； they take a battery of indicators and average their signals。 This is a meaningless exercise because its oute depends on what indicators you include in your poll； change the selection and you’ll change the oute。 The Triple Screen trading system； described below； overes the problem of conflicting indicators by linking them with different timeframes。
一些交易者在复杂面前闭上了眼睛，选一个简单的指标，就坚持用这个指标，直到市场突然把他掀翻。其他人自己搞家庭投票，他们选择一堆指标，把信号平均。投票选指标的方法没有含义，你改变投票，就改变了结果。后面谈到的三重滤网会利用不同的时间周期把互相矛盾的指标联系起来。
Time … The Factor of Five A puter screen can fortably show about 120 bars in an open…high…low…close format。 What if you display a monthly chart； each of whose bars represents one month？ You’ll see 10 years worth of history at a glance； your stock’s big picture。 You can display a weekly chart and review its rallies and declines for the past two years。 A daily chart will show you the action for the past few months。 How about an hourly chart； each of whose bars represents one hour of trading？ It will let you zoom in on the past few days and pick up short…term trends。 Want to get even closer？ How about a 10…minute chart； each of whose bars represents 10 minutes of market action？
时间——5的因素 电脑屏幕可以轻松地显示120条竹线，包括开盘价，最高价，最低价和收盘价。如果显示月线图呢，每个竹线代表一个月？你会一眼看见10年的数据，股票的巨幅图。你可以显示周线图，看过去2年的上涨和下跌。日线图会告诉你过去几个月的变动。小时图如何，每个竹线代表了1个小时？它会让你缩放看过去的几天，以找到短期趋势。更拉近点会如何？10分钟会怎么样，每个竹线代表了10分钟的市场波动？
Looking at all these charts； you quickly notice that markets can move in different directions at the same time。 You may see an upmove on the weekly chart； while the dailies are breaking down。 An hourly chart may be sagging； while a 10…minute chart is rallying。 Which trend to follow？
看看所有的图，你会注意到市场在同一时间向不同的方向波动。你也许会看见周线图上是上涨的，然而日线图上是下跌的。1小时图可能是下跌的，然而10分钟是上涨的。要跟踪哪个趋势？
Most beginners look at only one timeframe； usually daily。 The trouble is that a new trend； erupting from another timeframe； often hurts traders who do not look beyond their noses。 Another serious problem is that looking at the daily chart puts you on par with thousands of other traders who also look at it。 What’s your advantage； what’s your edge？
大部分投资者只看一个时间周期，通常是日线。问题是，新趋势从另外一个时间周期跳出来，经常伤害没有准备的交易者。另外一个严肃的问题是，看日线图让你和千万个其他交易者一样。你的优势是什么，你的强项是什么？
Markets are so plex that we must always analyze them in more than one timeframe。 The Factor of Five； first described in Trading for a Living； links all timeframes。 Every timeframe is related to the next higher and the next lower by the factor of five。 There are almost five （4。3 to be exact） weeks to a month； five days to a week； and close to five hours in many trading days。 We can break an hour into 10…minute segments and those into 2…minute bars。
市场很复杂，因此我们必须用不同的时间周期来分析市场。5的因素，在《以交易为生》中第一次提到，把不同的时间周期联系起来了。每个时间周期和更高一级，更低一级的时间周期相差5倍。