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ing below the surface of the market。 If you buy on the strongest signal in technical analysis and then your stop gets hit； it means that bears are especially strong； making it worthwhile to sell short。 Reversing positions from long to short is usually not the best idea； but the failure of a divergence of MACD…Histogram is an exception。
激进的交易者可以设置“止损并下反向单”，意味着如果多头仓位被止损，他会反转做空。当一个超级强的信号失效时，那表明基本面已经发生了变化。如果你根据很强的信号做多，但是跌到止损单位置，仓位被止损了，它意味着空头特别强，值得去做空。把多头仓位变成空头仓位通常都不是好主意，但是MACD柱的背离失败是个例外。
I call this a Hound of the Baskervilles signal； after a story by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle。 Sherlock Holmes was called to investigate a murder on a country estate。 His clue came from the fact that the family dog did not bark while the crime was being mitted。 That indicated the dog knew the criminal； and the murder was an inside job。 Sherlock Holmes received his signal not from the action but from the lack of expected action。 When a divergence of MACD…Histogram fails to produce a reversal； it gives a Hound of the Baskervilles signal。
我把这个叫做巴斯克维尔猎犬信号，来自阿瑟·柯南·道尔爵士的故事。有人打电话给歇洛克·福尔摩斯，让他去调查乡村的谋杀案。他的线索来自在案发时家里的狗没叫。这表明狗认识罪犯，谋杀是内部人干的。歇洛克·福尔摩斯不是通过行为得到线索，而是通过本应该发生却没有发生的行为得到了线索。当MACD柱背离不能产生反转，它就发出了巴斯克维尔猎犬信号。
Go short when the MACD…Histogram traces a bearish divergence； that is； when prices rise to a new high but the indicator ticks down from a lower peak。 When the crowd gets on its hind legs and roars； it is tempting to throw caution to the wind； close our eyes； and buy。 When the crowd bees manic； it is hard to remain cool； but an intelligent trader looks for MACD…Histogram divergences。 If prices rally； decline； and then rally to a higher level； but MACD…Histogram rallies； falls below its zero line； breaking the back of the bull； and rallies again； but to a lower level； it creates a bearish divergence。 It shows that bulls have grown weaker； the stock is rising out of inertia； and as soon as that inertia runs out； the stock is likely to collapse。
当MACD柱跟踪到看跌背离时做空，也就是说，当价格上涨到新高，但是指标从低的顶峰开始下跌。当大众坐在地上嚎叫时，他们是在放松警惕，闭眼买入。当大众疯狂的时候，很难保持冷静，但是聪明的交易者会查看MACD柱背离。如果价格上涨，下跌，然后涨到新高，但是MACD柱上涨，下跌到0轴以下，打破了多头的界限，然后又上涨，但是是比较低的水平，那就产生了看跌背离。这表明多头变弱，股票的上涨是惯性，当惯性减弱，股票很可能崩跌。
MACD…Histogram flashes a signal to go short when it ticks down from its second peak。 Once short； place a stop above the latest rally peak。 Placing stops when shorting near the tops is notoriously difficult because of high volatility。 Trading smaller positions allows you to place wider stops。
当MACD柱从第二个顶峰下跌时，他就发出了做空的信号。一旦做空，在最后一个反弹顶峰处设置止损。因为波动激烈，在顶部附近下止损单特别困难。交易小点的仓位，止损距离就可以拉长点。
Divergences between MACD…Histogram and prices on the daily charts are almost always worth trading。 Divergences on the weekly charts usually mark transitions between bull and bear markets。
日线图上的MACD柱和价格的背离都值得交易。周线图上的背离通常表明了上涨和下跌的转换。
Figure 5。10 The Hound of the Baskervilles Signal
图5。10 巴斯克维尔猎犬信号
Heating oil； along with the rest of the oil plex； ran up to an historic high in November 2000。 Then the demand shrunk； new supplies entered the market； bullish mania was broken； and oil began to slide。 In December； it fell to 85 cents （point A）； with MACD…Histogram tracing a new massive low； which indicated that bears were extremely strong。 There was a brief reflex rally to the EMA； while the indicator turned positive （breaking the back of the bear） and then declined to a more shallow low （point B）。 At that time prices traced out a kangaroo tail； reaching down to 75 cents； and turned up。 That bullish divergence； bined with a tail； gave a buy signal。 Remember； no matter how strong the signal； a serious trader needs to use stops。
取暖油，和其它油产品一样，在2000年11月达到历史高点。然后需求减弱，新的供应增加到市场，多头的疯狂被打破了，油开始跌。到了12月，它跌到了85分（A点），MACD柱跟踪到了巨大的低量，这表明空头非常强。短暂的反弹到均线，指标变成正数了（打破了空头的脊梁），然后跌到更浅的底部（B点）。当时价格跟踪到了袋鼠尾巴，跌到75分，然后上涨。看跌背离，配合袋鼠尾巴，给出了买入信号。记住，不管信号多强，认真的交易者需要用止损。
Heating oil resumed its decline and gave a Hound of the Baskervilles sell signal when prices violated their bottom B in area C。 It paid to switch to the short side then because heating oil eventually slid below 68。 A violation of a bullish divergence of MACD…Histogram is a prime example of the Hound of the Baskervilles signal。 The underlying fundamentals must be extremely strong to violate a divergence； and one is well advised to trade in the direction of the break after the stop is hit。
取暖油继续下跌，当价格在区域C违反了底部B时，它给出了巴斯克维尔猎犬信号。做空是有收获的，因为取暖油最终跌到了68。对MACD柱看涨背离的违反是典型的巴斯克维尔猎犬信号。看不见的基本面一定是太强了，所以要违反背离，当止损单被激活时，止损后可以建议反向做。
If you have the discipline to use stops and reverse after a divergence is violated； you are not going to be afraid the next time you see a divergence。 After seeing a new bullish divergence D…E you’ll put on a trade again； using the same principles and rules。
如果你有纪律，会用止损，当背离被违反时还知道反向做交易，那么下次当你看见背离时，你不会害怕。在D…E看见新的看涨背离时，你运用同样的纪律和原则再次交易。
At the right edge of the chart a minor bullish divergence is taking shape。 Prices have briefly violated their March…April lows and rallied； pleting a false downside breakout and giving a bullish signal。 The EMA has stopped declining and gone flat。 From here； heating oil should be traded from the long side； with a stop below the recent low。
在本图右边，一个小的看涨背离正在形成。价格很快突破了3——4月的低点，开始上涨，形成了下跌的假突破，给出了多头信号。均线停止下跌，开始走平。在这里，取暖油应该做多，在最近的低点设置止损点。
When MACD…Histogram reaches a new multi…month peak； it indicates that bulls are extremely strong； and the corresponding price peak is likely to be retested or exceeded。 When MACD…Histogram falls to a new multi…month low； it shows that bears are extremely strong； and the corresponding price low is likely to be retested or exceeded。
当MACD柱达到几个月的新顶峰，它表明多头太强了，对应的价格最高点可能会被再次测试或超过。当MACD柱跌到几个月的新低点，它表明空头太强了，对应的地点可能会被再次测试或超过。
When MACD…Histogram rises to a new record peak； it shows a terrific splash of bullish enthusiasm。 Even if bulls pause to catch their breath； the upside inertia is so strong that the rally is likely to resume after a pause。 When MACD…Histogram drops to a new low； it shows that bears are extremely strong。 Even if bulls manage to stage a rally； the sheer downside inertia is likely to drive the market to retest or exceed its low。
当MACD柱上涨到新的顶峰，它表明多头热情的爆发。即使多头停下来喘口气，上涨的惯性太大，也会在休息后继续上涨。当MACD柱跌到了新低，它表明空头超级强。即使空头搞了一个反弹，下跌的惯性还会继续推动市场再次测试或超过新低。
MACD…Histogram works like headlights on a car … it lights up a stretch of the road ahead。 It doesn’t show you the entire way home； but lets you see far enough so that driving at a normal speed you can prepare for the twists and turns ahead。
MACD柱就像汽车的头灯——照亮了前面的路。它不会指明所有回家的路，但是让你看的远，这样只要你的速度正常，你就可以防止突然转弯。
Force Index
力量指数
Force Index is an oscillator developed by this author and first described in Trading for a Living。 The decision to reveal Force Index was one of the hardest in writing that book。 I felt reluctant to disclose my private weapon but remembered how resentful I used to feel while reading books by authors who wrote； in so many words； “Now； of course； you wouldn’t expect me to tell you everything；” I decided I would write either everything or nothing； and describe Force Index。
力量指数是一个振荡指标，是我发明的，第一次公布在《以交易为生》。在写那本书的时候，做了艰难的决定才公布这个指标。我很不想公布自己的武器，但是过去在读书时，我发现很多作者都喜欢说：“当然了，你不能指望我把所有东西都告诉你。”，当时我就生气。所以我做了决定，要么全部写，要么就不写，我决定写力量指数。
The disclosure did me no harm。 Force Index continues to work for me as well as it did before。 Very few software panies have included it in their systems； and its behavior on my charts hasn’t changed。 This reminds me of a good friend with whom I served on a ship。 He was the biggest smuggler I ever met； but he never hid anything far away。 Sometimes he’d put the contraband right on his desk； under the noses of customs officers。 Leaving a secret in the open can be the best way of hiding it。
这个说明并不会伤害我。力量指数就像过去一样在为我工作。很少有公司在它们的系统里加入这个指数，它的表现在我的图表里没有改变。这让我想起了我在船上打工时的一个好朋友。他是我遇见的最大的走私犯，但是他从不隐