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Manual testing will improve your ability to think； recognize events； and act in the foggy environment of the market。 Your trading plans must include certain absolute rules； most of them concerning money management。 As long as you stay within those rules； you have much freedom in trading the markets。 Your growing levels of knowledge； maturity； judgment； and skill are much more important assets than any puterized testing。
人工测试能提高你的思维能力，判断能力，以及在市场迷雾中行动的能力。你的交易计划必须包含明确的原则，大多是关于资金管理的。只要你坚守原则，你交易时就很自由。你增长的知识，成熟，判断，技巧都比电脑测试要珍贵。
Paper Trading
模拟交易
Paper trading means recording your decision to trade and tracking it as if it were a real trade； only without money。 Most of those who paper trade have lost their nerve after getting beat up by the markets。 Some people alternate between real trades and paper trades and cannot understand why they seem to make money on paper but lose whenever they put on a real trade。
模拟交易就是纪录你的交易决定，并跟踪它，就像真的交易，只是没用真钱。大部分人做模拟交易时，如果被市场教训了，会发火。有些人既做真实交易，也做模拟交易，就是不明白为什么做模拟交易就赚钱，做真实交易就亏钱。
This happens for two reasons。 First； people tend to be less emotional with paper。 Good decisions are easier to make when your money is not on the line。 Second； good trades often look murky at entry time。 The easy…looking ones are more likely to lead to problems。 A nervous beginner jumps into obvious…looking trades but paper trades the more promising ones。 It goes without saying that hopping between real trading and paper trading is sheer nonsense。 You either do one or the other。
有2个原因。第一，模拟交易一般没有情绪。不用真钱，很容易做出正确的决定。第二，好的交易在整个过程中看起来很模糊。看起来很容易的有可能导致问题。紧张的新手跳进明显的，更有希望的交易，但只是模拟交易。同时在真实交易和模拟交易之间跳来跳去是没有意义的。你必须选择一个。
There is only one good reason to paper trade … to test your discipline。
模拟交易的唯一理由是——测试你的纪律性。
If you can download your data at the end of each day； do your homework； write down your orders for the day ahead； watch the opening and record your entries； and then track your market each day； adjusting your profit targets and stops … if you can do all of this for several months in a row； recording your actions； without skipping a day … then you probably have the discipline to trade that market。 Someone who is in it for entertainment will not be able to paper trade this way because it requires work。
如果你每天收盘后下载数据，自己做功课，写下第二天要下的单，关注开盘价，记下你的进场点，每天跟踪市场，调整你的利润目标和止损点——如果你能这样坚持做几个月，记录你的行动，不错过一天——那么你是有纪律的。一些为了好玩而交易的人不能这样模拟交易，因为太累了。
To paper trade your system； download your data at the end of each day。 Apply your tools and techniques； reach trading decisions； calculate stops and profit targets； and write them down for tomorrow。 Do not place your orders with a broker； but check whether they would have been triggered and write down those fills。 Enter paper trades in your spreadsheet and your trading diary （see Chapter 8； “The Organized Trader”）。 If you have the willpower to repeat this process daily for several months； then you have the discipline for successful trading with real money。
要模拟交易，每天收盘后下载数据。应用你的工具和技术，形成交易决定，计算止损点和利润目标，提前写下来，第二天用。不要让你的经纪人下单，但要检查你的订单是否被执行了，记下已经成交的订单。用你的电子表格和日记记录你的交易（请看“第08章，有条理的交易者”）。如果你有意志坚持做几个月，你就可以用真钱做有纪律的交易。
Still； there is no substitute for trading with real money； because it engages emotions more than any paper trade。 It is better to learn by putting on very small real trades than paper trades。
然而，没有什么可以替代真实的交易，因为真实的交易涉及情绪，而模拟交易很少涉及情绪。刚开始真实交易时最好用小钱。
TRIPLE SCREEN UPDATE
三重滤网更新
One of the most pleasant encounters that occur several times each year is when a trader es up to me at some conference and tells me how he started trading for a living after studying my book or participating in a Camp。 At that point； he may be living and trading on a mountaintop； and as often as not he owns the mountaintop。 I noticed long ago that half…way through our conversation these people bee slightly apologetic。 They tell me they use Triple Screen； but not exactly the way I taught it。 They may have modified an indicator； added another screen； substituted a tool； and so forth。 Whenever I hear that； I know I am talking to a winner。
在一些会议期间，有交易者走过来告诉我，他说在阅读了我的书或参加我举办的交易训练营之后，就开始了自己的交易生涯。这是最快乐的见面，如此高兴的谈话场景，我每年总能经历数次。也许当时他已经在山顶生活和交易了，通常他不会拥有这个山顶。我很早就留意到在交谈中，这些交易者会略有歉意。他们说采用了我的三重滤网，不过并没有完全遵循我的指导。他们可能把我教的三重滤网交易系统做了一些改动，修改一个指标，再添加一重滤网，替换了某种工具等等。当我听到这些时，就明白这些人是市场的赢家。
First of all； I tell them they owe their success primarily to themselves。 I did not teach them any differently than the dozens of others in the same class。 Winners have the discipline to take what is offered and use it to succeed。 Second； I see their apology for having changed some aspects of my system as an indication of their winning attitude。 To benefit from a system； you must test its parameters and fine…tune them until that system bees your own； even though originally it was developed by someone else。 Winning takes discipline； discipline es from confidence； and the only system in which you can have confidence is the one you have tested on your own data and adapted to your own style。
首先，我告诉他们，他们的成功主要归功于他们自己的努力。我教给他们的内容和教给同一课堂里数十位同学的内容是一样的。赢家有纪律接受自己需要的内容，并用它取得成功。其次，他们改动了我的交易系统，为此向我道歉时，我认为他们的做法是赢家的态度。要想从一个交易系统中受益，必须测试参数，做出优化调整，直到这个系统符合自己的性格为止。即使这个系统是由别人发明的，也应如此。要想获胜，需要纪律，纪律来自信心。只有你运用自己的数据来测试系统，并且将它调整成适合自己的风格时，你才会对这个交易系统怀有足够的信心。
I developed the Triple Screen trading system in the mid…1980s and first presented it to the public in 1986 in an article in Futures magazine。 I updated it in Trading for a Living and several videos。 Here I will review it； focusing on recent enhancements。
我在80年代中期发明了三重滤网交易系统，在86年的《期货》杂志上第一次写文章公开发布。后来我在《以交易为生》和几段录像中对它作了改进，在这里我做下回顾，并将关注的焦点放在最近的改动上。
What is a trading system？ What’s the difference between a method； a system； and a technique？
什么是交易系统？一个方法，一个系统和一个技术之间的区别是什么？
A method is a general philosophy of trading。 For example； trade with the trend； buy when the trend is up； and sell after it tops out。 Or … buy undervalued markets； go long near historical support levels； and sell after resistance zones have been reached。
方法是通用的交易哲学。比如，顺势交易，趋势上涨时买入，顶部形成，下跌时卖出。或者在市场被低估时买入，在价格接近历史支撑区时买入，达到阻力区时卖出。
A system is a set of rules for implementing a method。 For example； if our method is to follow trends； then the system may buy when a multi…week moving average turns up and sell when a daily moving average turns down （get in slow； get out fast）。 Or … buy when the weekly MACD…Histogram ticks up and sell after it ticks down。
系统是为执行方法而建立的一套原则。比如，如果我们的方法是跟踪趋势，交易系统会在周均线上涨时建立多头仓位，并在日均线弯头下跌时卖出（缓进快出）。或者，当周线级别的MACD柱上涨时买入，下跌时卖出。
A technique is a specific rule for entering or exiting trades。 For example； when a system gives a buy signal； the technique could be to buy when prices exceed the high of the previous day or if prices make a new low during the day but close near the high。
技术是进场或出场时采用的明确具体的原则。比如，当系统发出买入信号时，技术就是在价格超过前一日最高点，或者价格当日创下新低却在高点附近收盘时，买入。
The method of Triple Screen is to analyze markets in several time…frames and use both the trend…following indicators and oscillators。 We make a strategic decision to trade long or short using trend…following indicators on long…term charts。 We make tactical decisions to enter or exit using oscillators on shorter…term charts。 The original method has not changed； but the system … the exact choice of indicators … has evolved over the years； as have the techniques。
三重滤网方法是对市场用不同的时间周期来分析，并同时运用趋势指标和振荡指标作为研判工具。用长期图表上的趋势指标进行分析，做策略决定，是做多，还是做空。在短期图表上采用振荡指标，做战术决定，确定进场点和出场点。最初的方法没有改变，但是系统——所采用的指标——则随着年月的增长而有所演进，技术也是这样演进。
Triple Screen examines each potential trade using three screens or tests。 Each screen uses a different timeframe and indicators。 These screens filter out many trades that seem attractive at first。 Triple Screen promotes a careful and cautious approach