按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
首先选择你最喜欢的周期，把你交易的周期定义为中周期。然后把这个周期的长度乘以5，得到长周期。在这个长周期上采用趋势指标，制定策略，确定做多，做空或是观望。观望也是合理的做法。如果长期图看涨或看跌，则返回到中期图，用振荡指标来寻找顺应着长期趋势方向的进场点和出场点。在切换到短期图表之前，设置好止损和利润目标，如果可能，精确地调整好进场点和出场点。
SCREEN ONE
第一重滤网
Choose your favorite timeframe and call it intermediate。 Multiply it by five to find the long…term timeframe。 Let’s say you prefer to work with daily charts。 In that case； move immediately one level higher； to the weekly chart。 Do not permit yourself to peek at the dailies because this may color your analysis of weekly charts。 If you are a day…trader； you might choose a 10…minute chart as your favorite； call it intermediate； and then immediately move up to the hourly chart； approximately five times longer。 Rounding off is not a problem； technical analysis is a craft； not an exact science。 If you are a long…term investor； you might choose a weekly chart as your favorite and then go up to the monthly。
选择你最喜欢的交易周期，并将它定义为中周期。再把它的长度乘以5，得到长周期。如果你选择日线作为中周期，则立刻将注意力移到周线图，在你的长期图表上进行分析。在这个决策过程里，不允许再看日线图，因为这会影响你对周线图的分析。如果日内交易者把10分钟图做为中周期，则须将注意力立即移到60分钟图。6分钟图和10分钟图的5倍，也就是50分钟图略有差异，不过无碍大局，毕竟交易只是一门技艺而不是精确的科学。如果你是长线交易者，你可以选择周线图作为中间图表，并把月线作为长周期。
Apply trend…following indicators to the long…term chart and make a strategic decision to trade long； short； or stand aside。 The original version of Triple Screen used the slope of weekly MACD…Histogram as its weekly trend…following indicator。 It was very sensitive and gave many buy and sell signals。 I now prefer to use the slope of a weekly exponential moving average as my main trend…following indicator on long…term charts。 When the weekly EMA rises； it confirms a bull move and tells us to go long or stand aside。 When it falls； it identifies a bear move and tells us to go short or stand aside。 I use a 26…week EMA； which represents half a year of trading。 You can test several different lengths to see which tracks your market best； as you would with any indicator。
在长期图表上采用趋势指标进行分析，并制定策略以确定做多，做空或是观望。最早的三重滤网采用周线图的MACD柱作为趋势指标，它非常敏感并发出许多买卖信号。而现在我更喜欢采用周线图上的均线作为我长期图表上的主要趋势指标。当周线图上的均线上涨时，则表明是上涨趋势，应当做多或观望。当它下跌时，则表明是下跌趋势，应当做空或观望。我采用26周均线，原因是它代表了半年来市场大众的交易活动。交易者可以测试均线的参数并寻找到适合特定市场的优化均线。其它指标同理。
I continue to plot weekly MACD…Histogram。 When both EMA and MACD…Histogram are in gear； they confirm a dynamic trend and encourage you to trade larger positions。 Divergences between weekly MACD…Histogram and prices are the strongest signals in technical analysis； which override the message of the EMA。
我在周线图上继续画MACD柱，当均线与MACD柱协调一致，彼此呼应时，则表明确立了动力十足的趋势，鼓励交易者交易较大仓位。而周线图上MACD柱与价格发生的背离，则是技术分析中最强烈的信号，甚至超过了均线的信息。
Figure 6。1 Triple Screen … Weekly Chart
图6。1 三重滤网——周线图
Gaming stocks tend to do well in a weak economy … gambling appeals to people down on their luck。 In 2000 and 2001； as the broad stock market was declining； gaming stocks put in a stellar performance。 Alliance Gaming； for instance； rallied from below 2 to over 40； with very few pullbacks。 How could Triple Screen help us benefit from this performance？
在经济不景气的情况下，游戏公司的股票还表现不错——人们喜欢赌博，赌运气。在2000年和2001年，整个股市在跌，游戏公司股票却在慢慢发展。比如说联合游戏公司，从2以下涨到40多，中途很少有回调。如何让三重滤网帮助我们取得收益呢？
The pattern between points A and B is called a saucer bottom； a slow drawn…out minimal decline and just as minimal a rise on hardly any volume。 Still； during that time ALLY had managed to put in a bullish divergence of MACD…Histogram； a hugely powerful signal that is rarely seen on weekly charts。 It traced a low in area A； but could not even push below zero at the bottom of the saucer。 The first vertical arrow marks the point where MACD…Histogram starts trending higher。 A few weeks later the weekly EMA also turns up； and at that point； with both weekly indicators trending up； ALLY bees a screaming buy。 It is time to switch to the daily charts and look for buying opportunities。 The second vertical arrow marks another period when both the EMA and MACD…Histogram are in gear to the upside； and then the stock doubles in a few weeks。 The clean； steady uptrend of the weekly EMA keeps telling us to trade ALLY only from the long side。
A点和B点之间的模式叫圆底，慢慢地下跌，慢慢地上涨，几乎没有成交量。然而，在这期间，联合游戏的MACD柱形成了看涨背离，在周线图上是巨大的有力信号。它在A区域跟踪到了低点，但是不能把它压到0轴以下。第一个垂直向上的箭头是MACD柱开始上涨的地方。几周后，周均线也上涨，在那里，2个周指标都上涨，联合游戏可以买入。此时可以转到日线图去找买入机会。第二个垂直向上的箭头标明均线和MACD柱第二次一致向上，然后几周内股价翻番了。这种一致的，稳定上涨的周均线一直在告诉我们买入联合游戏。
At the right edge of the chart； the weekly EMA keeps trending higher； but wildly volatile price action shows that the easy portion of the uptrend is over。 MACD…Histogram is moving opposite the EMA； warning of high volatility ahead。 The relatively easy money is off the table。
在图的右边，周均线继续上涨，但是剧烈波动的价格表明稳定的上涨已经结束。稳定的收益已经不存在了。
SCREEN TWO
第二重滤网
Return to the intermediate chart and use oscillators to look for trading opportunities in the direction of the long…term trend。 When the weekly trend is up； wait for daily oscillators to fall； giving buy signals。 Buying dips is safer than buying the crests of waves。 If an oscillator gives a sell signal while the weekly trend is up； you may use it to take profits on long positions but not to sell short。
返回到中期图表，并且采用振荡指标来寻找顺应长期趋势方向的交易机会。当周线趋势看涨时，等待日线振荡指标回落并发出买入信号。在回调时买进，比在浪顶买入要安全。周线看涨，而日线振荡指标看跌时，也可以把先前的多单平仓，获利出局，不过，交易者不能在此位置建立空头仓位。
Figure 6。2 Triple Screen … Daily Chart
图6。2 三重滤网——日线图
The uptrend on the weekly chart keeps telling us to trade ALLY from the long side or stand aside。 With the daily EMA also rising； we have several options。 We may buy when prices pull back to their rising daily EMA； or when short…term Force Index dips below zero。 The upper channel line provides a logical profit…taking target。 An experienced trader can pyramid his position； adding to it whenever a new buy signal appears and only tightening stops instead of exiting at the upper channel。 That channel keeps getting wider as prices rise … from 10 points wide in April to 16 in July。
周线图上的上涨一直告诉我们要做多联合游戏，或者观望。日线图上均线也在上涨，我们有几个选择。日线图中当价格回调到上涨的均线时买入，或者当短期力量指数跌到0以下买入。通道上线是合理的利润目标。有经验的交易者会金字塔加仓，当新的买入信号出现时加仓，做好止损，而不是在通道上线出场。当价格上涨时通道在变宽——从4月的10点增大到7月的16点。
At the right edge of the chart； the alternating spikes of Force Index warn traders that the days of relatively easy money are over。 The market has bee hysterical； and the likelihood of trend continuation is low。 Better bank your winnings and go look for another stock in another group that is rising or falling quietly； not yet discovered by the market crowd。
在图的右边，力量指数指针在变化，它告诉交易者轻松赚钱的日子已经过去了。市场已经疯狂，趋势延续的概率不大了。最好是把利润存进银行，从其它股票池里找到正在慢慢上涨或下跌的股票，最好大众还没有发现。
When the weekly trend is down； look for daily oscillators to rise； giving sell signals。 Shorting during upwaves is safer than selling new lows。 When daily oscillators give buy signals； you may use them to take profits on shorts but not to buy。 The choice of oscillators depends on your trading style。
当周线图趋势下跌时，等待日线图振荡指标上涨并发出做空信号。在反弹时做空，要比创新低时进场做空安全。当日线的振荡指标发出买入信号时，可以把空单平掉，获利出局，不过不应当在此建立多头仓位。振荡指标的选择，取决于你的交易风格。
For conservative traders； choose a relatively slow oscillator； such as daily MACD…Histogram or Stochastic； for the second screen。 When the weekly trend is up； look for daily MACD…Histogram to fall below zero and tick up； or for Stochastic to fall to its lower reference line； giving a buy signal。
保守的交易者会选择一个相对慢速的振荡指标，例如日线上的MACD柱或随机指标，以用于第二重滤网的分析。当周线图趋势上涨时，等待日线图MACD柱回落至0轴之下，并再度上涨时，或者等随机指标回落到超卖区发出买入信号时寻找做多机会。
Reverse these rules for shorting in bear markets。 When trend…following indicators point down on the weekly charts； but daily MACD…Histogram ticks down from above its zero line； or Stochastic rallies to its upper reference line； they give sell signals。
下跌市场则反之。当周线图的趋势指标表明趋势下跌，则日线图的0轴之上MACD柱掉头下跌，或者随机指标上涨到超卖线并且发出做�