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trade its return into the range。
对开盘后交易区间的突破一般是假突破。当价格离开宽广的开盘后交易区间,注意突破可能要回到这个交易区间。
When the opening range is narrow; expect a breakout and be ready to trade in its direction。
当开盘后交易区间很窄,期待突破的出现,准备好顺势交易。
Successful traders test everything。 There are hours in most days when the market is undecided; neither a buy nor a sell。 Use that time to research its opening ranges … how many minutes they take to form in your stock or future; how wide they tend to be; and so on。 Create a graph linking the height of the opening range with the likelihood of a breakout; and you’ll acquire a private tool; a real edge in the markets。
成功的交易者会测试所有东西。在市场中,有时候整天没方向,既不是买,也不是卖。用这个时间研究开盘后交易区间——它们要多久才会形成,它们一般有多宽,等等。画一个图,显示开盘后交易区间的高度,以及突破的概率,这样,你就有了自己的工具,赢得市场的优势。
Currencies … Trading the 24…hour Markets The United States is the only country in the world where most people don’t think much about currencies。 We live in the dollar universe; but the moment an American sets foot abroad; he realizes that everyone; from executives to taxi drivers; watches exchange rates。 When the people outside the United States; and even recent immigrants to the United States; get a bit of trading capital; their first idea is to trade currencies。 The bulk of currency trading takes place in the interbank market; directly between dealers。 Beginners turn to unscrupulous currency trading shops that bucket their orders (hold their money without executing trades) and kill them with missions; spreads; and interest charges。 Survivors discover currency futures; where spreads are more narrow; missions more reasonable; and no interest is charged for the privilege of holding a position。
外汇——24小时的市场 这个世界上只有在美国大部分人都不关心外汇。我们生活在美元的世界,但是当他到国外,他就明白了,所有人,包括企业高级主管和出租车司机,都要关心汇率。当人们到了美国以外的国家,甚至包括刚移民到美国的人,都有交易资金,他们第一个想到的就是交易外汇。在银行之间有大量的外汇交易,交易商之间也有。新手很随便地到外汇交易商店去换汇,结果被佣金,价差,和利息害惨了。生存者发现了外汇期货,价差更小,佣金比较合理,持有仓位不扣利息。
Aside from the horrors of forex shops; the biggest challenge of currencies is that they trade around the clock。 You may enter a trade; analyze it in the evening; and decide to take profits the next day。 When you wake up; there is no profit to be taken。 The turning point you saw ing has already e and gone; not in the United States; but in Asia or Europe。 Someone has picked your pocket while you slept! Markets are tough enough without exposing yourself to 24…hour risk。
除了外汇商店的恐怖,外汇最大的挑战是它24小时交易。你也许想交易后,晚上分析,第二天兑现利润。当你醒来时,根本没利润了。你想好的反转点早就到了,已经过去了,不仅在美国如此,在亚洲或欧洲都是这样。有人在你睡觉的时候拿了你的钱!即使不是24小时交易,市场也有风险。
Big financial institutions deal with this problem by implementing a system of “passing the book。” A bank may open a position in Tokyo; manage it intraday; and then transfer it to its London branch before closing for the night。 London continues to trade that position and in the evening passes the book to New York; which trades it until it passes it back to Tokyo。 Currencies follow the sun; and small traders can’t keep up with it。 I once visited a wealthy Thai gentleman who was planning to install his two sons and himself in three different cities around the globe to trade currencies; but the boys balked。
大金融机构用“传本子”的系统解决这个问题。一个银行在东京建仓,当天操作,在收盘前传给伦敦。伦敦继续交易这个仓位,到了晚上再把本子传给纽约,纽约继续交易,然后再传给东京。外汇跟着太阳走,个人交易做不到这点。我拜访过一个泰国富人,他计划把他的2个儿子和他自己放在3个不同的城市交易外汇,但是他的儿子不愿意。
If you trade currencies; you should either take a very long…term view and ignore daily fluctuations; or else day…trade; avoiding overnight positions。 If you trade currency futures; use two sets of data。 Use cash or interbank data for your weekly charts and futures data for the dailies to pinpoint entries and exits。 The daily charts of currency futures are full of overnight gaps because those markets are open for only a few hours a day; but the charts of cash are smooth。
如果你交易外汇,你要么选择长线,放弃日内波动,要么做日内交易,不持仓过夜。如果你交易外汇期货,使用2种数据。周线图用现金业务或银行数据,日线图用期货数据,以找到进场点和出场点。外汇期货日线图充满了过夜缺口,因为市场一天只交易几个小时,但现金图表的运动很平滑。
S&P 500 … False Breakouts S&P futures are notoriously hard to trade; but newers are drawn to them like moths to a flame。 “Are you man enough to trade the S&P?!” is the battle cry of those overgrown boys。 Most traders are woefully undercapitalized for this expensive contract。 It is hard to see how anyone with less than a quarter million in his account could trade a single contract of this volatile market; which often jumps several points of 250 each within minutes。
标注普尔500股指期货——假突破 标准普尔股指期货很难交易,但是新手像飞蛾扑火一样地被它们吸引。“你有种交易标准普尔吗?!”这是年轻人吵架时喊的话。大部分人钱不多,无法做这么贵的合约。很难看见资金低于25万的人做,因为只能买到一份合约,市场波动剧烈,每分钟内几点的波动高达250元。
The floor takes full advantage of the fact that most gamblers do not have enough money to carry overnight positions; place sensible stops; or ride out small adverse moves。 The floor has got the art of shaking out inexperienced day…traders down to a science。 They use false breakouts to make losers jump like Pavlov’s dogs; buying high and selling low。
场内交易者知道大部分赌徒没有足够的钱仓持过夜,无法合理止损,或驾驭小反转,场内交易者占了很多优势。场内交易者知道如何欺负没有经验的日内交易者。他们用假突破让输家像巴浦洛夫的狗一样乱跳,高买低卖。
The floor tries to push prices through several well…known levels on most days; flushing out weak holders。 There is always a mass of sell stops below the low of the opening range and the low of the day。 Shoving the market through those lows leads to selling by weak holders; and the pros then buy their merchandise on sale。 There is always a mass of buy stops at the high of the opening range; the high of the day; and the high of the previous day; placed by weak shorts。 Pushing the S&P through those levels sets off panicky buying。 That’s when the floor sells short; positioning itself for the next downswing。 There is nothing uniquely devious about this game; only it works especially well in the S&P because there are so many amateurs and this market is so expensive that they have no staying power。
大多日子里,场内交易者会尽力把价格推到几个比较明显的水平,把软弱的持有者洗出去。在开盘后交易区间的最低点下面和当天最低点下面都有很多多头止损单。把价格打到这些价格,都能把意志不坚定的持有者洗出去,然后专业人士再买入。在开盘后交易区间的最高点,当天的最高点,前一天的最高点,都有很多空头止损单,是意志不坚定的空头下的。把标准普尔股指期货推到这些水平就能洗出很多人。场内交易者再做空,下跌时就可以平仓。这个游戏就是这样来回,标准普尔股指期货更明显,因为这个市场里业余选手太多了,但是他们的资金少,无法做到长期持有。
A day…trader who recognizes the special challenges of the S&P can reach several conclusions:
了解标准普尔股指期货特殊挑战的交易者可以得到以下结论:
This is not a good market for beginners; it is too expensive and too fast。 Learn to drive an old Chevy before a turbocharged Ferrari。
这个市场不适合新手。价格太昂贵,波动太快。在开法拉利之前,最好先学会开雪佛莱。
Have a good…sized account if you plan to trade this market。 A quarter of a million dollars for each contract gives you staying power and allows you to place sensible stops。
如果想在这个市场交易,账户资金要合理地多。25万元一份合约,要求你要有持仓能力和止损能力。
Fade false breakouts in the S&P … trade against them。 Use oscillators to detect when a false breakout starts running out of steam; and trade for the return into the middle of the day’s range。
标准普尔股指期货的假突破——要反向做。用振荡指标去寻找假突破的竭尽点,在回到当天波动的中间范围时交易。
The Daily Plan
日计划
A day in front of a live screen includes many dead hours when nothing seems to happen。 People grow bored and restless; and the next thing you know; a day…trader turns his screen into an entertainment center。 Professionals tend to follow a timetable to reinforce their discipline。
每天坐在屏幕前面,很多时候什么事都没有。人们感到无聊和不安,你很清楚会发生什么,日内交易者关上屏幕,换个娱乐项目。专业人士则紧跟时间表,加强纪律。
Your trading day should start before the opening。 Give yourself at least half an hour to assemble and analyze overnight data。 Watch the first half hour of trading with no interruptions; not even phone calls。 If you put on a trade; then manage it。 Otherwise dedicate two hours to research; database maintenance; reading a trading magazine or a book; or trolling the net for fresh ideas; all the while in front of the screen。 Suspend everything if the market looks close to giving a buy or sell signal。 Have lunch at your desk if you are managing a trade。 Review trading…related posts on the net and put more time into research。 Consider keep