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able float。 This formula was brought to my attention by Roger Perry of The RightLine Report （rightline）：
周转率 周转率通过比较日均成交量和股票数来预测股票的波动。这个公式是“正确线报告”的罗杰·佩里提出的：
TRO = monthly volume divided by the available float
周转率=月成交量除以股票数
Volume for the past month is easy to calculate。 The available float refers to the total float； or number of shares issued； minus the holdings of institutions and insiders。 Those groups tend to hold positions more tightly than private traders； who are more likely to sell if the price is right。 All of the above figures are widely available from financial databases。
过去一个月的成交量很好计算。股票数指总数，已经发行的数量，要减去机构和内部人持有的数量。这些人比个人交易者还要紧紧地持有股票，个人交易者只要价格合适就卖了。以上所有数据都容易得到。
You can calculate the average monthly volume by multiplying the daily volume by 22； the number of trading days in a month。 Using the daily volume makes the TRO more responsive to changes in volume as a stock rolls into or out of favor with traders。
一个月的交易日有22天，你可以通过乘以22天成交量的方法来计算月均成交量。使用日成交量是周转率更能面对成交量的变化，因为股票总是在变。
TRO shows how many times the float trades in a month。 For example； if a stock’s monthly volume is 200 million shares and its available float 100 million； its TRO is 2。 If monthly volume of another stock is also 200 million； but its available float is 50 million； its TRO is 4。
周转率说明一个月内股票被交易了几次。比如，如果一只股票的月成交量是2亿股，它的数量是1亿股，那么周转率是2。如果另外一只股票的月成交量是2亿股，但数量是5000万股，它的周转率是4。
If the average volume is much lower than the float； that stock has a low turnover rate and an onrush of buyers is unlikely to move the price much。 However； if the volume is high relative to the float； then a lot of people pete for few available shares； and a sudden rush of buyers can move the price dramatically。
如果成交量均值比股票数低很多，那只股票的周转很低，如果买家突然出手，很可能把股价推高很多。如果成交量比股票数高很多，那么是很多人在争购很少的数量，此时买家的突然出手能让价格涨的更厉害。
High…TRO stocks tend to be more volatile。 Whoever wants to buy them has to pay a premium to pry them out of the hands of relatively few holders。 When a selling wave hits the markets； the stocks with high TROs tend to go down harder because they do not have a large pool of institutional holders looking to pick up extra shares at a discount。 All other factors being equal； the stock with a higher TRO will make a bigger percentage move。
周转率高的股票一般波动也大。任何想买的人都要从少数持有者那里拼命抢购。当有卖单袭击市场时，高周转率的股票会跌的更厉害，因为大机构持有者是不会打折买股票的。在其它因素一样的情况下，高周转率的股票波动就大。
For example； at the time of this writing； the monthly volume in GE was 355。9 million； with the available float of 9；809 million； resulting in a turnover ratio of 4％。 The figures for JNPR were 387。2 million； 155。6 million； and 249％。 No wonder； GE is a slow…moving blue chip； whereas JNPR is a high…flyer。 Check these numbers once a month； as they keep changing。 Stock splits reduce TROs by increasing the float。 One split too many in DELL has oversaturated the market to the point where the stock has bee unattractive for day…traders。
比如，在我写这段话的时候，通用电子的月成交量是3。559亿，股票数是98。09亿，周转率是4％。JNPR的数字分别为3。872亿，1。556亿，249％。难怪通用电子是运动缓慢的蓝筹，而JNPR是高飞一族。每个月检查一次数据，它们一直在变。股票在拆分时数量增加了，所以会降低周转率。戴尔电脑就是因为拆分次数太多，造成市场过饱和，交易者不再喜欢戴尔股票了。
Blue chips； such as General Electric and IBM； are widely held by institutions and individuals。 Their daily volume； no matter how high； is but a tiny percentage of their float。 New unseasoned stocks often have very small floats； but when they catch the public’s eye； their daily volumes go sky…high； lifting the TRO。
蓝筹股，比如通用电子和IBM，被机构和个人大量持有。不管它们的日成交量多么高，也只是流通股的一小部分。新的不稳定的股票，通常流通股很少，但是一旦被大众看中，它们的日成交量会很高，提高了周转率。
You can keep close tabs on the TROs of stocks you track。 Whenever the market is active and running； switch into high…TRO stocks。 Whenever the market goes into a choppy stage； switch to low…TRO stocks and trade their swings。 TRO can help you switch between aggressive and defensive positions。
你可以关注你的股票的周转率。无论何时，只要市场活跃，就转到高周转率的股票。无论何时市场变成振荡了，换到低周转率的股票，波段交易。周转率能帮助你在激进和保守的仓位间转换。
Trading Swings or Trends Whenever you glance at a chart； your eye is immediately drawn to major rallies and declines。 Big moves attract us with their promise of a killing。 Exactly who gets killed is a question that seldom crosses beginners’ minds。 The trouble with major rallies and declines is that they are clearly visible in the middle of the chart； but the closer you get to the right edge； the murkier they bee。
波动交易或趋势交易 无论何时当你看图表时，你的眼睛很快看出上涨和下跌。大波动以绝杀吸引我们。新手从来不会去想到底谁被杀了。在图表中的大波动看起来很清晰，但是问题是，你离它越近，它越模糊。
Big uptrends are punctuated by drops； while downtrends are interrupted by rallies。 Emotionally； it is extremely hard to hold a position through a countertrend move。 As profits melt away； we begin to wonder whether this is a temporary interruption or a full…blown reversal。 There is a strong temptation to grab what little money is left and run。 Shorter swings are easier to catch because price targets are closer and stops are tighter。
大涨中也有下跌，大跌中也有上涨。从感情上说，当趋势相反时，很难持有仓位。当利润越来越少时，我们开始怀疑了，这到底是暂时的回吐，还是真正的反转。人们很容易抓住剩下来的一点钱逃跑。短期的波动则比较容易抓住，因为价格目标和止损都很近。
Should you trade long…term trends or short…term swings？ Be sure to decide before you put on a trade； it is easier to be objective when no money is at risk。 Different stocks have different personalities； which is why trend traders and swing traders tend to follow different stocks。
你是应该做长期趋势，还是做短期波动？要保证在交易之前做好决定，在没有投资现金之前是比较容易保持客观的。不同的股票有不同的个性，这就是为什么趋势交易者和波段交易者选择不同的股票。
Traders have three choices。 Trend traders identify major trends which run for months。 Swing traders catch short…term swings between optimism and pessimism； which last from a few days to a few weeks。 Day…traders enter and exit during the same trading session； with trades lasting only minutes or hours。
交易者有3个选择。趋势交易者确认可以走几个月的趋势。波段交易者在悲观和乐观之间抓住短期波动，时间可以持续几天到几周。日内交易者同时也会交易，持有时间从几分钟到几小时。
Successful trend trades that catch large moves bring in more money per trade。 Other advantages include having more time to decide when to enter or exit； not being tied to the screen； and having the emotional satisfaction of calling major moves。 Trend trading does； however； have its drawbacks。 The stops are farther from the market … when they get hit； you lose more。 Also； you have to sit through long periods of inactivity； which many people find hard to tolerate； and you miss many short…term trading opportunities。
成功的趋势交易者单笔交易能抓住大波动，赚很多钱。其它优势包括有更多的时间决定进场点，出场点，不用死盯屏幕，情绪上感到满足。然而，趋势交易也有不足之处。止损离价格太远了——一旦被止损，亏损就很大。同时，你必须坐等很长时间，很多人都受不了，你错过了很多短期的交易机会。
Swing traders have more opportunities than trend traders； gaining more experience from frequent trades。 The dollar risk is lower thanks to closer stops； and quick rewards provide emotional satisfaction。 Swing trading also has its drawbacks。 Expenses for missions and slippage are higher； due to more frequent trading。 You must work every day； actively managing trades。 Also； you are likely to miss major moves … you can’t catch big fish on a small hook。
波段交易者比趋势交易者有很多机会，通过频繁交易能积累很多经验。因为止损很近，所以风险低，快速的回报能带来精神上的满足。波段交易也有不足之处。佣金和滑点的费用很高，因为交易太频繁了。你必须每天工作，积极地管理好交易。同样，你会错过大波动——你不能用小钩子钓大鱼。
Trend trading … buying and holding in a major bull market … works best with the type of stocks that Peter Lynch calls 10…baggers； those that go up by a factor of 10。 They are usually newer； cheaper； less seasoned issues。 An Internet or a biotech pany with a hot new invention； a new patent； or a new idea is more likely to go up by a huge percentage than the stock of an old established firm。 A small pany may bet its future on a single idea or product； and its stock will soar if the public buys that bet or stay in the doghouse if it doesn’t。 Had a large multinational pany e up with the same invention； its stock would have barely budged because one more product makes little difference for a huge firm。
趋势交易——上涨时买入并持有——彼得·林奇所谓的10垒打，涨10倍的股票就适合这样交易。它们通常很新，很便宜，比较稳定。互联网或生物科技公司的新发明，新专利或新思想，很可能引起大涨，而比较老的公司则不太可能出现这个现象。一个小公司可能在一个想法或产品上下赌