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Please stop and reread that sentence。 Notice that the word specific occurs in it three times。 You must choose the right stock； predict the extent of its move； and forecast how fast it’ll get there。 You must make three choices … if you’re wrong on just one； you’ll lose money。
期权就是打赌，赌在确定的时刻确定的股票、股指期货或者是期货能够达到或超过确定的价格。请停下来，再读一次。请注意，确定这个词用了3次。你必须选择正确的股票，预测它运动的程度，还要预测它运动的快慢。你必须做3个决定——就算你只错了1个，你就会亏钱。
When you buy an option； you have to jump through three hoops in a single leap。 You have to be right on the stock or the future； right on its move； and right on its timing。 Ever tried tossing a ball through three rings at an amusement park？ This triple plexity makes buying options a deadly game。
当你买期权的时候，等于1次跳进了3个圈子。你必须选到正确的股票或期货，必须对它的波动方向判断正确，必须在时间上判断正确。在娱乐场是否玩过把1只球扔进3个圈？同时要确定3个复杂的因素，所以说期权是致密的游戏。
Options offer leverage … an ability to control large positions with a small outlay of cash。 The entire risk of an option is limited to the price you pay for it。 Options allow traders to make money fast when they’re right； but if the market reverses； you can walk away and owe nothing！ This is the standard flow of brokerage house propaganda。 It attracts hordes of small traders who cannot afford to buy stocks but want a bigger bang for their buck。 What usually gets banged is the option buyer’s head。
期权提供了杠杆——支付很少的现金，却可以控制很大的仓位。期权的风险仅仅是你付的钱。如果交易者判断正确，可以利用期权赚快钱，但是如果市场反转，你就什么都没有了！这是经纪公司的标准宣传语。很多资金量小的交易者买不起股票，他们喜欢买期权，希望期权能让自己的钱实现漂亮的一击，但更多情况下是交易者的头上受到一击。
My pany； Financial Trading； Inc。； has been selling books to traders for years。 Whenever a person es back to buy another book； it is a sign that he is active in the markets。 Many clients buy books on stocks or futures every few months or years。 But when a first…time buyer orders a book on options； he never returns。 Why？ Does he make so much money so fast that he doesn’t need another book？ Or does he wash out？
我的金融交易公司过去几年经常卖书给交易者。只要有交易者再来买书，就说明他在市场中很活跃了。很多客户每几个月或几年买一些股票或期货书。但是，如果一个人第一次买的是期权书，他就再也不来了，为什么？是不是他赚了很多钱，不必再来了？还是破产了？
Many beginners buy calls because they can’t afford stocks。 Futures traders who get beat up sometimes turn to options on futures。 Losers switch to options instead of dealing with their own inability to trade。 Using a shortcut to weasel out of trouble instead of facing a problem never works。
很多新手买期权是因为买不起股票。期货交易者被期货害惨了，也会转而去做期权。输家不检查自己错在哪里，却喜欢转做期权。有困难，自己不解决，却去找捷径，这是不可取的。
Successful stock and futures traders sometimes use options to reduce risks or protect profits。 Serious traders buy options rarely and only in special situations； as we will see later in this book。 Options are hopeless for poor people who use them as substitutes for stocks because they can’t afford the real thing。
成功的股票和期货交易者有时利用期权来降低风险或保护利润。认真的交易者很少买期权，只有在特殊情况下才会买，本书后面会谈到。对于穷人来说，买不起股票，就买期权做替代的想法是没有希望的。
Professionals take full advantage of starry…eyed beginners crowding into options。 Their bid…ask spreads are terrible。 If an option is bid 75 cents； offered at a dollar； you are 25％ behind the game as soon as you buy。 The expression “your loss is limited to what you paid for an option” means you can lose 100％！ What’s so great about losing everything？
当过分乐观的新手抢着买期权时，专业人士会利用这个优势。新手的买入价和卖出价很混乱。如果市场的买入报价是75分，卖出报价是1元，当你买入的时候，你就亏了25％（张轶注：这个和外汇市场一样，某个货币，银行的买入报价是0。9元，卖出报价是1元，这意味着我们只能1元买入，0。9元卖出。也就是说，我们在市场中总是容易吃亏）。有句话说“你的亏损仅仅限于你买期权的钱”，意思就是说你会100％的亏损！输光了很伟大吗？
A client of mine was a market…maker on the floor of the American Stock Exchange。 She came to my classes on technical analysis because she was pregnant and wanted to get off the floor and trade from home。 “Options；” she said； “are a hope business。 You can buy hope or sell hope。 I am a professional … I sell hope。 I e to the floor in the morning and find what the public wants。 Then I price that hope and sell it to them。”
我的一个客户是美国股票交易所的场内做市商。因为她怀孕了，不方便在场内交易，她想在家里交易，她就来上我的技术分析课。她说：“做期权就是做希望的生意。你可以买希望，也可以卖希望。我是专业人士——我卖希望。每天早上，我走进交易所场内，先看看大众想要什么。然后我把希望定个价，就可以卖给大众了。”
Professionals are more likely to write options than buy them。 Writing is a capital…intensive business。 You need hundreds of thousands of dollars to do it right； and most successful options writers operate with millions。 And even theirs is not a risk…free game。 Several years ago a friend who used to be one of the nation’s top money managers landed on the front page of The Wall Street Journal after he lost 20 years’ worth of profits in a single bad day of writing naked puts。
专业人士大多喜欢发行期权（张轶注：很有趣的赚钱方法，可惜中国只有券商才可以这么做），而不喜欢买期权。发行期权是一种赚钱的生意。只要几百元到几千元就可以操作，有些成功的人操作的资金高达几百万。这不是没有风险的游戏。我的一个朋友曾经是全国最出名的基金经理之一，一天，他发行了一个看跌期权，结果把20年的利润都亏掉了，为此上了《华尔街日报》的封面。
There are two types of option writers。 Covered writers buy a stock and write an option against it。 Naked writers write calls and puts on stocks they don’t own； backing their writes with cash in their accounts。 Writing naked options feels like taking money out of thin air； but a violent move can put you out of business。 Writing options is a serious game； suitable only for disciplined and well…capitalized traders。
有2种发行期权的人。第1种买入股票，再发行期权。第2种人发行的期权针对他自己根本没有的股票，他们利用账户里的资金做保证。发行看跌期权就像是在空气里抓钱，但是一个凶猛的波动就会让你破产。发行期权是一个很严肃的游戏，只有有纪律，资金管理能力强的交易者适合做。
Markets are like pumps that suck money out of the pockets of the poorly informed majority and pump it into the pockets of a savvy minority。 People who service those pumps； such as brokers； vendors； regulators； and even janitors who sweep exchange floors； are paid from the stream of money flowing through the markets。 Since markets take money from the majority； pay help； and give what’s left to the savvy minority； the majority； by definition； must lose。 You can be sure that whatever the majority of traders does； believes； and says； is not worth doing； believing； and saying。 You have to stand apart from the crowd in order to succeed。 Smart traders look for situations where a large majority does something one way； while a small； moneyed minority goes the opposite way。
市场就像一个泵，它把大多数穷人口袋里面的钱泵到少数聪明人的口袋里。为市场服务的人，比如经纪人，商业机构，管理层，甚至包括为交易所扫地的人，他们都可以从市场的资金流中得到工资收入。由于市场从大多数人那里拿钱，给服务市场的人付工资，并把剩下来的钱给少数人，所以大部分人必须亏钱。无论大部分人做什么，信什么，说什么，都是没用的。你要离开大众，才能成功。当大部分人往一个方向走时，聪明的少数人则往相反的方向走。
In options the majority buys calls and； to a lesser degree； puts。 The insiders almost exclusively write options。 Professionals use their heads； while amateurs are driven by greed and fear。 Options take full advantage of those feelings。
在期权方面，大部分人买看涨期权，很少买看跌期权。内行的人则专门发行期权。专业人士利用大脑，而业余选手受贪婪和恐惧的驱动。期权正好利用了贪婪和恐惧。
Greed is the engine of option…selling propaganda。 You must have heard the slogan： “Control a large block of stock with just a few dollars！” An amateur may be bullish on a 60 stock； but doesn’t have 6；000 to buy 100 shares。 He buys some 70 calls with two months of life left in them for 500 each。 If that stock rises to 75； those options will acquire 500 of intrinsic value； while maintaining some time value； and a speculator can double his stake in a month！ The amateur buys calls and sits back to watch his money double。
期权宣传的就是贪婪。你一定听过这个口号：“用很少的钱控制大量的股票！”一个业余选手可能会看涨一个60元的股票，但是他没有6000元买100股。他会买70元的看涨期权（张轶注：等于买了100只期权，对应100股股票），希望未来2个月分别涨500元。如果期权涨到75元，期权会增值500元，因为有时间价值，投机者可以在1个月让资金翻番！业余选手可以买看涨期权，并坐等自己的资金翻番。
Strange things begin to happen。 Whenever the stock rises two points； his calls go up only one； but when the stock falls or even pauses； his calls fall briskly。 Instead of seeing his money double in a hurry； the amateur is soon staring at a 50％ paper loss； while the clock starts ticking louder and louder。 The expiration date is nearing； and even though the stock is higher than it was when he bought his calls； they are now cheaper； showing a paper loss。 Should he sel